Students discover Thomas Jefferson letter among thousands of items donated to library

Two students recently stumbled upon a letter written by President Thomas Jefferson while sifting through thousands of documents and other items donated to the university's library.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 9:00 am

Newly explored bacteria reveal some huge RNA surprises

Researchers have found very large RNA structures within previously unstudied bacteria that appear crucial to basic biological functions such as helping viruses infect cells or allowing genes to "jump" to different parts of the chromosome.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 9:00 am

Human guinea pigs wary of high-paying medical trials

New research shows that people equate large payments for participation in medical research with increased levels of risk. And when they perceive studies to be risky, they spend more time learning about the risks and nature of the study. Paper published this month in Social Science and Medicine suggests there is a "mismatch" between current research guidelines for setting compensation levels and the assumptions participants make about the levels of pay and risk.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 9:00 am

Brain waves can 'write' on a computer in early tests, researchers show

Neuroscientists have demonstrated how brain waves can be used to type alphanumerical characters on a computer screen. By merely focusing on the "q" in a matrix of letters, for example, that "q" appears on the monitor.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 9:00 am

Scientists restore some function to cells from cystic fibrosis patients

In an encouraging new development, scientists have restored partial function to lung cells collected from patients with cystic fibrosis. While there is still much work to be done before the therapy can be tested in humans, the discovery opens the door to a new class of therapies for this and a host of other chronic diseases.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 9:00 am

Weight-loss proves effective cure for sleep apnea

For obese men, a dramatic weight loss can be an effective way to improve moderate to severe sleep apnea, scientists. Those with severe sleep apnea when the study began benefited most from weight loss.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 9:00 am

Multiple myeloma patients experience high response rate with new 3-drug combination

A new three-drug combination has shown in a phase 1/2 clinical trial that it is a "highly effective regimen" in the treatment of patients newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a cancer of white blood cells in bone marrow.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 6:00 am

Gene module underlying atherosclerosis development discovered

By measuring the total gene activity in organs relevant for coronary artery disease, scientists have identified a module of genes that is important for the recruitment of white blood cells into the atherosclerotic plaque. The findings suggest that targeting the migration of white blood cells in the development of atherosclerosis may help to reduce the risk for adverse clinical effects such as ischemia and myocardial infarction.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 6:00 am

Aggression-promoting pheromone discovered in flies

Scientists say they have identified an aggression-promoting pheromone that controls such behavior in Drosophila, and have pinpointed the neurons in the fly's antenna that detect this pheromone and relay the information to the brain to elicit aggression. Their results provide an important first step toward unraveling the mystery of how aggression -- an innate (unlearned) behavior -- is hardwired into the brain by an animal's genes.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 6:00 am

Stopping MRSA before it becomes dangerous is possible

Most scientists believe that staph infections are caused by many bacterial cells that signal each other to emit toxins. The signaling process is called quorum sensing because many bacteria must be present to start the process. But scientists have now determined that the very first stage of staph infection, when bacteria switch from a harmless to a virulent form, occurs in a single cell and that this individual process can be stopped by the application of a simple protein.
Source: ScienceDaily: Latest Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 6:00 am

Act now on climate, summit urged

Denmark's PM describes the UN climate summit in Copenhagen as an "opportunity the world cannot afford to miss".
Source: BBC News | Science & Environment | UK Edition | 7 Dec 2009 | 3:37 am

S.Africa offers to slash emissions for aid (AFP)

Traffic lights are out in Cape Town in 2008, because of power cuts. South Africa has offered to slash the growth of its greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent by 2025, but in exchange wants rich nations to expand aid for poor countries to cope with climate change.(AFP/File/Rodger Bosch)AFP - South Africa offered Monday to slash the growth of its greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent by 2025, but in exchange wants rich nations to expand aid for poor countries to cope with climate change.



Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 3:36 am

UN climate conference opens in Copenhagen (AP)

Members of environmental activist group Act!onaid, dressed as 'climate debt agents', hold up a banner outside the congress centre, before the opening of the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen December 7, 2009.  REUTERS/Pawel Kopczynski (DENMARK)AP - The largest and most important U.N. climate change conference in history opened Monday, with diplomats from 192 nations warned that this could be the best, last chance for a deal to protect the world from calamitous global warming.



Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 3:18 am

The nation's weather (AP)

This NOAA satellite image taken Monday, Dec. 7, 2009 at 12:45 a.m. EST shows scattered clouds with snow showers reaching into Illinois and southern Wisconsin as a frontal boundary extends through the state and into the Upper Great Lakes. To the south gulf moisture triggers a few showers in areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Tennessee. Meanwhile scattered clouds are visible over the Mid-Atlantic. (AP PHOTO/WEATHER UNDERGROUND)AP - Active weather was expected to develop nationwide on Monday.



Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 3:10 am

Some background on the climate talks (AP)

AP - Around 15,000 delegates, environmentalists, scientists, journalists and others gathered in Copenhagen on Monday to begin two weeks of negotiations on what to do about climate change. Here's a look at what's happening there:
Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 3:05 am

Virgin Galactic to unveil commercial spaceship (AP)

This undated file photo  provided by Virgin Galactic shows placement of the center beam during SpaceShipTwo's construction inside the Scaled Composites plant at the Mojave Airport in Mojave, Calif.  SpaceShipTwo is slated for rollout Monday, Dec. 7, 2009, in the Mojave Desert(AP Photo/Virgin Galactic)AP - After five years of secret construction, the cloak is coming off a privately funded spacecraft designed to fly well-heeled tourists into space.



Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 7 Dec 2009 | 2:57 am

Ed Miliband: climate change deniers are 'profoundly irresponsible'

As the Copenhagen summit begins, climate change secretary attacks those who claim the science of global warming is in doubt

Ed Miliband, the climate change secretary, today said critics who argue that climate change is not the result of human actions are "profoundly irresponsible".

As negotiating teams from 192 countries gather in Copenhagen for the climate change summit, Miliband admitted there was "further to go" on persuading climate change sceptics here and abroad. But he defended Gordon Brown's criticism of them in the Guardian as "behind-the-times, anti-science, flat-earth climate sceptics" .

Miliband told the BBC's Radio 4 Today programme: "The overwhelming consensus of scientists across the world is that climate change is real and is man-made and is happening. The people who do somehow want to suggest that the science is in doubt are profoundly irresponsible."

He added: "We know that carbon dioxide concentrations are the highest level in the atmosphere in 600,000 years – nobody doubts that. We also know from the physicists that the CO2 effect when CO2 is emitted is it traps the heat in the earth's atmosphere and then warms the planet. That is very clear and not in dispute.

"This is not an observation or people just running models. This is a clear scientific effect people are talking about. In those circumstances I think it's right for us to say look, we are not scientists, but we should represent to you fairly the science, and it's because the scientific view is so clear and overwhelming on this we must fairly represent that."

In an article in today's Guardian, the prime minister underlines the historic nature of the summit, which has been described as the most important international gathering since the end of the second world war. "Sometimes history comes to turning points," he writes. "For all our sakes the turning point of 2009 must be real."

He calls on the 100 heads of government and state expected in Copenhagen on the final day of the talks to move quickly to reinforce an anticipated political deal with a full-fledged treaty, which would be made legally binding in international law within six months.

Miliband said that the central objective of the summit was to secure a political agreement to cap global emissions by 2020. "We are going for something very big. I don't think it is guaranteed that we will succeed, but we will do everything we can in the next two weeks not just to get a deal but to get a deal that is consistent with the science," he said.

He denied that the government's backing for a third runway at Heathrow airport was at odds with government rhetoric on tackling climate change.

He framed the government decision to allow expansion for extra flights backed by a freeze on aviation emissions as a "sensible approach".

"Increases in passenger numbers will have to be paid for by improvements in carbon efficiency."

He added: "The most important thing is to take people with you, and the way you take people with you is by saying this is a sensible approach."


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Source: Science news, comment and analysis | guardian.co.uk | 7 Dec 2009 | 2:32 am

Anti-Japan whaling protests: govts urge restraint (AFP)

Handout photo shows the Japanese whaling boat Yushin Maru in the Southern Ocean. Militant protesters opposed to Japanese whaling missions have left port as New Zealand, Australia and The Netherlands urged them to avoid violent confrontations with whaling crews.(AFP/HO/File)AFP - Militant protesters opposed to Japanese whaling left for the Southern Ocean Monday as New Zealand, Australia and The Netherlands urged them to avoid violent confrontations.



Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 6 Dec 2009 | 11:52 pm

ONGC Videsh plans refinery in Nigeria - govt (Reuters)

Oil Minister Murli Deora smiles during the annual economic editor's conference in New Delhi November 26, 2008. ONGC Videsh, the overseas investment arm of state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp, is planning to set up a greenfield refinery in Nigeria, Oil Minister Murli Deora told reporters. REUTERS/B Mathur/FilesReuters - ONGC Videsh, the overseas investment arm of state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp, is planning to set up a greenfield refinery in Nigeria, Oil Minister Murli Deora told reporters on Monday.



Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 6 Dec 2009 | 11:28 pm

Senior Venezuelan minister resigns in bank scandal (Reuters)

Reuters - A senior minister and close confidant of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez resigned on Sunday in a scandal that has shaken the OPEC nation's banks and triggered a purge of businessmen with ties to the government.
Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 6 Dec 2009 | 9:56 pm

The Oracle Divines Electric Vehicles Everywhere by 2030

None other than the Oracle of Omaha (Warren Buffett) told a group of Rice graduate business students last week that cars will be electric by 2030. The Houston Chronicle summarized a Buffet response to a student's query on peak oil ...
Source: Discovery News - Top Stories | 6 Dec 2009 | 6:22 pm

A perfect storm

Twitterers, blogging activists and other interest groups will outnumber the media at the world climate change summit in Copehagen

In the next fortnight 5,000 journalists from 180 countries will go to Copenhagen to cover the world climate summit. There might have been far more, but two weeks ago the UN had to close its accreditation list ahead of a meeting for the first time, saying that the giant Bella venue could only hold 15,000 people. Cop 15, as it is formally known, will therefore be one of the biggest-ever international media occasions outside the 2008 Olympics and the last US conventions.

It's a measure of how the environment has risen up the global agenda that the last great UN green show attracted a modest 1,000 press and TV to the more hospitable venue of Rio de Janeiro in 1992. In those days, when climate change was a mere infant in world politics and angry science deniers hardly existed, newspapers and television mostly sent one person to the earth summit. The Guardian was considered reckless for sending two specialists from Britain, and co-opted its local Brazilian correspondent. A US-based writer later flew in with President George Bush Sr, and the Guardian newsdesk, which barely understood what emissions were, bravely ran four or five pieces a day until collective incomprehension set in about Day 7.

Legions of bloggers

This year's summit, widely hyped as the most important meeting in the last 30 years, is a multimedia affair. The BBC is sending 35 people and the Guardian a team of eight, including environment correspondents from Beijing and Washington (emissions duly offset). And every newspaper is sending online journalists, bloggers, video and audio journalists, producers, analysts and Twitterers.

For the first time, too, many developing countries will send journalists in force. Normally barred from media fests such as this by the sheer cost, governments, media foundations, Commonwealth organisations and development groups such as Panos have funded several hundred writers and filmmakers from countries on the frontline of climate change to follow the talks. China, India and Brazil, the three great emerging nations, will be sending nearly 300 journalists.

In the UN list of 5,000, however, mainstream media representatives are outnumbered by people representing the publications of charities, pressure groups, business interests and non-government organisations. Churches, financiers, wind farm operators, fossil fuel industries, even carbon traders have all gained media accreditation to further their lobbying. New on the block are legions of youth activists from around the world who will be blogging on a scale never experienced at an international political meeting.

Yet pity the mainstream press. Their choice is stark: stay outside the Bella centre, pay £6 for a cup of tea and cover rallies, demonstrations and fringe meetings in the freezing cold; or keep warm inside, pay £7 for tea and asphyxiate in the hot, poisonous air generated by armies of diplomats and non-government groups.

What all first-timers to the UN climate process may find hard to grasp at Copenhagen is that this could be the only mass media event in history without a proper beginning or an end, which has no genuine celebrities, no fixed agenda, no guaranteed outcome and is unlikely to throw up clear winners or losers. It's like a cricket Test match in that the rules of the diplomacy game are complex, most meetings are supremely boring, very little may happen for many days and it is all conducted in incomprehensible UN-speak language.

The problem is getting anywhere near the truth. Most countries do their diplomacy in private and do not want anyone – let alone the press – to know what goes on in the negotiations. Beyond that, the talks are so technical that few can understand them even if they are explained. Moreover, meetings are closed, all decisions are dependent on others and are made in secret, the UN secretariat is opaque, the diplomats and negotiators are unaccountable and speak in code, and because of the insane complexity of the negotiations, there is probably only a handful of people who actually understand what is happening at any moment. The drama at the very end when world leaders start their horse-trading will be genuinely dramatic, but no one will actually see it take place.

The UN is partly to blame for this opacity and the paucity of genuine information. Press conferences where blocs of countries assess the proceedings are infrequent and kept to a few short questions; many countries have no experience with the media; everyone briefs against everyone else and because diplomats are famously partial and are paid to lie for their countries, and objective facts are in short supply.

None of this will stop tonnes of copy being sent back. There will be set pieces, sideshows and photo opportunities galore, such as Obama flying in for a few hours to give an inspirational speech tomorrow then heading on to collect the Nobel peace prize. When the 100 world leaders come in a week later, they are likely to be met with profound weariness if they try to compete with each other to be seen as the greenest.

But there could still be drama. The poorest countries in the world could walk out in protest if the talks do not go to plan; the Danish model Helena Christensen could strip off and swim in the Baltic. Climate activists are also plotting.

More likely, climate deniers from Britain and the US will gain a rare platform to attack the science of climate change. Nick Griffin of the BNP will be there, as will several contrarian US senators.

However, the vast majority of bloggers and delegates believe in man-made climate change and any deniers will be very much on the fringes outside the hall. Against them will stand the scientific community, sherpas testifying to profound change in the Himalayas the young and President Nasheed from the Maldives explaining that his country will soon not exist, and activists intent on grabbing the stage.

Gore's prescience

Environment journalism has come a long way since 1975 when Geoffrey Lean – then of the Observer, now of the Telegraph – became the first dedicated correspondent. Before that, the brief was mostly given to correspondents who shadowed the government's rural affairs or farming department. The beat still covers traditional areas such as floods, spuds and trees, but it is now centred on science writing, international development and politics, energy, technology, economics, celebrity and lifestyle, as well as business, trade and protest. And because it crosses so many traditional journalistic boundaries, it has become a specialist area that suits generalists. Equally, there is no specialist political, business or feature writer who does not now regularly report on the environment. To paraphrase Al Gore, we are all environment journalists now.


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Source: Science news, comment and analysis | guardian.co.uk | 6 Dec 2009 | 5:21 pm

Should you treat your children like dogs?

Can dog-whisperering techniques used to control canines also work with children?

On parenting blogs, websites and Twitter, the guilty admissions are all the same: the training techniques of Cesar Millan, AKA "The Dog Whisperer", work on kids too. Millan has published four books; his show runs on a perpetual reel on the National Geographic channel. "As I watched him work with an extremely aggressive pit bull," admits a woman called TheMentorMom on Minti.com, "I saw that some of his techniques and philosophies applied to teaching children."

While a push on the neck or a loud "Sshht!" could cause raised eyebrows at the toddler group, the notion that dogs and children share a need for calm, assertive "pack leaders" and that both need exercise, discipline and love seems reasonable. No wonder such theories are challenging the trend for indulgent "helicopter" parenting.

"Today's parents have less time for their children, so when they do see them the last thing they want is confrontation," says psychologist Dr Aric Sigman, author of The Spoilt Generation. "But parents are finally realising that the tail is wagging the dog. Authority is a good thing."

Parenting coach Judy Reith used the Dog Whisperer's techniques on her terrier, Ollie. Now she applies them "every day" to her three daughters (aged 18, 15 and 10). As with her dog, she says, "I sometimes have to assume an air of quiet confidence with my children, even if I don't feel it inside. Parents just want to be their [kids'] friends because they hardly see them. But it's no good being their friend. You need to be unpopular sometimes and lay down the law."

Sigman points to universals in "behaviour modification techniques" across the animal and human world: a bear cuffing her cub, an elephant in effect "shouting" at a straying calf. Even in adolescence, he says, "Teens still want you to be the pack leader, if only to rebel against you."

But other experts are more sceptical. "Using Dog Whisperer techniques on kids infantilises kids and adults," says Dr Frank Furedi, author of Wasted: Why Education Isn't Educating. "Quick-fix techniques like this distract from the important task of creating a relationship with a child."

Surely, though, a quick fix is better than chaos? So I try the technique at home. When my out-of-control labrador snatches a sausage from the table, I tell him "Ssshh" then, in a calm, firm tone: "Go to your bed." He looks at me, quietly defiant. I scream it, and he obeys. My three children Isabella, 10, Sam, eight, and Ted, five, meanwhile, seem surprised when I explain with calm authority that TV time is over. They don't whinge for long when I snap it off. However, my eldest finds the idea that she has anything in common with the dog a bit offensive. "Dogs can't learn on their own so they need more help," she says, "But kids need to be a bit naughty sometimes. If parents just take control all the time then we'll become too sensible too early in life. And sensible people are no fun."


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Source: Science news, comment and analysis | guardian.co.uk | 6 Dec 2009 | 5:20 pm

Letters: Darwin did get there before Wallace

Alfred Venables, Julian Wimpenny and David Lloyd (Letters, December 3) suggest that Alfred Russel Wallace "has a stronger claim to the theory of evolution than has Darwin", and imply that there is something suspect in Charles Darwin's reaction to the 1858 letter from Wallace. This is contradicted by well-documented facts.

The development of Darwin's thoughts on evolution can be traced in his notebooks of 1836-38, published in 1987 by Cornell University Press. These show that he had arrived at the theory of evolution by natural selection in 1838, fully 20 years before Wallace. In 1844 he wrote a detailed "sketch" of his ideas, which was communicated to Joseph Hooker. He had also discussed his ideas with Charles Lyell. He had intended to write a much larger work than The Origin of Species, but was stimulated by Wallace's letter into first publishing a short paper alongside Wallace's in 1858, and then into writing the Origin.

He followed this up with many other major books, the ideas for which are also recorded in his notebooks. It is well known that others before Darwin and Wallace had proposed the idea of evolution, and of natural selection. Darwin's unique contribution was to marshal a wide range of evidence from the natural history of his time, supporting evolution as a historical process and natural selection as its main cause. Valuable as Wallace's contributions to biology were, there is no doubt that they are overshadowed by Darwin's range of insights into questions that the theory of natural selection could illuminate, and his mastery of the facts.

Brian Charlesworth

Deborah Charlesworth

Edinburgh


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Source: Science news, comment and analysis | guardian.co.uk | 6 Dec 2009 | 5:15 pm

Science Weekly podcast | Copenhagen: What will success look like at the UN climate change summit?

The panel begins by looking at how COP 15, the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen, will work and whether the summit has been killed off before it has even begun. (2:00)

Alun Anderson, a former editor of New Scientist magazine, looks at how changes in the Arctic suggest we have already left things too late. He has just finished a book about the crisis called After the Ice. (8:10)

Environment editor John Vidal recently returned from a journey to witness climate change first-hand. He started by looking at glaciers in the Himalayas and headed down rivers to Bangladesh. (11:39) John met some of those whose lives are already affected by climate change.

Saleemul Huq, head of climate change at the International Institute for Environment and Development, suggests ways to help mitigate the problems.

From our Washington DC studio, US environment correspondent Suzanne Goldenberg tells us how far she thinks President Obama is willing to go to help save the global ecosystem. (19:04)

Suzanne also speaks to James Hansen from the Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies who, surprisingly, wants the Copenhagen summit to fail. He explains why.

Jonathan Watts in Beijing tells us about China's green ambitions and what other developing countries are looking to get out of the talks. (29:12)

The programme ends by sketching what a successful summit might look like. (38:08)

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Subscribe free via iTunes to ensure every episode gets delivered. (Here is the non-iTunes URL feed).



Source: Science news, comment and analysis | guardian.co.uk | 6 Dec 2009 | 5:01 pm

The Reality of 'Climategate'

The real question is whether that misconduct is relevant to the larger issue of whether there is solid evidence for global warming.
Source: Livescience.com | 6 Dec 2009 | 4:54 pm

Mind-Machine Breakthrough: People Type With Just Thoughts (LiveScience.com)

LiveScience.com - These findings make up one more step on the road to mind-machine interfaces that may one day help people communicate with just their thoughts. Researchers have recently employed brain scans to see numbers and maybe even pull videos from inside people's heads.
Source: Yahoo! News: Science News | 6 Dec 2009 | 4:21 pm

Mind-Machine Breakthrough: People Type With Just Thoughts

By focusing on images of letters, people with electrodes in their brains can type with their minds.
Source: Livescience.com | 6 Dec 2009 | 4:15 pm

Copenhagen must be a turning point. Our children won't forgive us if we fail | Gordon Brown

We need to build a low carbon economy across the world, with a deal that helps developing nations and ensures trust

Throughout history human progress has arisen from the dream of achieving far-reaching change even when people have said it was beyond our grasp, and from the struggle to overcome obstacles even when they seem insurmountable.

Today we face a global challenge whose solution, for decades until now, has appeared beyond our reach – impossible, unaffordable and unworkable.

But catastrophic climate change is no more a matter of untameable fate than slavery, women's oppression, mass unemployment or nuclear war. And over the next two weeks we have the chance to come together, as a truly global community, to take the first decisive action needed to change its course.

And today, together with Norway and Australia, the UK is taking a further step to a Copenhagen agreement: publishing a framework for the long-term transfer of resources to meet the mitigation and adaptation needs of developing countries.

Let no one be in any doubt about the overwhelming scientific evidence that underpins the Copenhagen conference. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change brings together over 4,000 scientists from every corner of the world. Their recent work has sharpened, not diminished, the huge and diverse body of evidence of human-made global warming. Its landmark importance cannot be wished away by the theft of a few emails from one university research centre. On the contrary, the pernicious anti-scientific backlash that the emails have unleashed has exposed just what is at stake.

The purpose of the climate change deniers' campaign is clear, and the timing no coincidence. It is designed to destabilise and undermine the efforts of the countries gathering in Copenhagen today.

And the reason is that – if we can summon the political will to secure the ambitious agreement we need – Copenhagen is poised to achieve a profound historical transformation: reversing the road we have travelled for 200 years.

Over that time we have based our prosperity on burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests. Now we need to create wealth and quality of life, not by putting carbon into the atmosphere but by taking it out. We need to build, in short, a low carbon economy. And not just at home: our aim must be to do this in every major economy of the world.

This will involve change: a shift from the energy dictatorship of oil and traditional fossil fuels to the efficiency, self-reliance and security of low carbon energy systems, which will be the engine of growth and job creation over the coming decade.

Inevitably, as with every great project of social and economic progress in the global and public interest, there will be vested interests who seek to oppose it. And so I will take on with evidence, argument and moral passion all the anti-science and anti-change environmental Luddites who seek to stand in the way of progress.

As we embark on these two weeks of negotiations, the British government is absolutely clear about what we must achieve. Our aim is a comprehensive and global agreement that is then converted to an internationally legally binding treaty in no more than six months. The agreement must put the world on a path to no more than two degrees of global warming. That means at least halving global emissions by 2050. And at the same time the deal must provide help to the poorest and most vulnerable countries to adapt to those climatic changes that are now inevitable – and that many are already experiencing.

While we have made huge progress over recent weeks, there is still movement required. First, all countries need to reach for high level ambition in their commitments to reduce their emissions and their emissions growth. Many countries have put forward offers that are dependent on the ambition of others. The European Union, notably, has committed to reducing our emissions by 30% if the overall deal is strong enough. Others, such as Australia and Japan, have made similar offers. So in Copenhagen we need to ensure that all countries move to the top of the range of their ambition, thereby enabling others to do so in a process of mutual reinforcement.

Second, we need a financing agreement that enables developing countries to tackle climate change. Money is needed for both adaptation to climate change and for its mitigation – that is, for investment in low carbon energy and energy efficiency, for green technology co-operation and – perhaps most important of all – to enable a radical reduction in deforestation in the rainforest countries.

That is why at the Commonwealth meeting last weekend I proposed, and the Commonwealth agreed, a Copenhagen Launch Fund to provide financial assistance to developing countries – not simply in 2013 but now, starting next year and building to $10bn annually by 2012. I am delighted that President Obama is not only going to Copenhagen to help conclude the deal, but leading the way on this. Along with President Sarkozy, Chancellor Merkel and Prime Minister Rudd he has committed his country to paying its fair share. This week I will ask the whole of the EU to do so as well.

And as our joint statement says, at Copenhagen we also need to address the need for financing in the longer term, to support adaptation and mitigation in developing countries. The world needs to be sure that the agreement will secure the required level of global emissions reductions. But that means developing countries must to be able to plan their investments with confidence. So we need to consider a system of "payment for results", in which low carbon and sustainable forest mitigation plans are financed over the long term for the emissions reductions they achieve.

Third, we need to design a "transparency mechanism" by which all countries can see clearly what is happening, not only in their own countries but in others. In a great global project of mutual ambition, we all need to be confident in one another.

When I first said leaders should go to Copenhagen, I wanted to ensure that there was as little room for failure as possible. More than 100 leaders are now attending. If by the end of next week we have not got an ambitious agreement, it will be an indictment of our generation that our children will not forgive. I will be doing everything in my power to ensure we succeed.

Sometimes history comes to turning points. For all our sakes, the turning point of 2009 must be real.

What do you want from Copenhagen? Write your own editorial.

For regular email updates on the Guardian's coverage of Copenhagen sign up for our Greenlight newsletter.


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Source: Science news, comment and analysis | guardian.co.uk | 6 Dec 2009 | 3:02 pm

Signs of change in the Himalayas as Copenhagen summit begins

Way above us in the Himalayan cloud are jagged, snowbound peaks – Annapurna, Damodar, Gangapurna, Dhalguri. Below us is the Thulagi glacier, a river of ancient ice snaking steeply down the Marshyangdi valley from near the top of Mount Manasulu.

The small plane banks and skims a lonely pass and we find what we have been looking for: at Thulagi's snout is a milk-blue lake marked on few maps. It has doubled in size in just a few years and is held back only by a low wall of dead ice and earth. If Thulagi carries on melting at the present rate, nothing will stop billions of litres of water bursting through this natural dam and devastating villages, farmland and everything below.

Thulagi is one of 20 steadily growing glacial lakes in Nepal which mountain communities and scientists fear will inevitably rupture if the growth in greenhouse gas emissions is not stemmed by world leaders at the Copenhagen climate summit. Average temperatures across Nepal have risen 1.6C in 50 years – twice the global average. But here on the roof of the world, in what is called the "third pole", they are already nearly 4C above normal and on track to rise by as much as 8C by 2050.

Temperature rises like this in the Himalayas would be a catastrophe. It is not just the future of a few mountain communities at stake but the lives of nearly one in four people in the world, all of whom rely on the Himalayas for water. Nepalese rivers alone provide water for 700 million people in India and Bangladesh. "If there is less snow in the Himalayas, or the monsoon rains weaken, or the glaciers melt with climate change, then all south Asian farming, industry, water supplies and cities will suffer," said Nepalese climate specialist Ngamindra Dahal.

On a 1,000-mile journey from the world's greatest water source in the Himalayas, down rivers and then by train through Nepal, India and Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal, we saw evidence of profound changes in weather patterns right across south Asia. Wherever we went we were told of significant temperature increases, and found governments slowly waking up to the threat of climate change and communities having to respond in any way they could to erratic rains and more serious droughts, floods and storms.

The starting point was Jomsom, a small town in the Kali Gandaki valley, 2,300 metres high and at the heart of the Annapurna range. This remote town, which saw its first ever car last year, has experienced no snowfall this winter. The temperature soared way above normal to 27C, and only fell to 13C, against a usual -4C, while the snowline has risen above 5,000 metres. The Gandaki river, fed by 1,200 glaciers, flows to the Ganges and on to Bangladesh.

"The temperature is higher, so there's less snow, and less meltwater in spring to plant crops. People have no need to come down from the mountains in winter. They can grow chillies and peppers now," said Sunil Pant, a Nepalese MP. "But now they cannot grow wheat or staple foods."

It's the same story even in the Everest valley region, 400 miles to the east of Jomsom, where the snowfall is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Already, some communities believe they are a living under a death sentence, according to Lucky Sherpa, the MP for the region. "They say they are not sure there will be a tomorrow," she said. "The snow used to come up to your waist in winter. Now children do not know what snow is. We have more flies and mosquitoes, more skin diseases. Communities are adapting by switching crops, but diseases are moving up the mountains, the tea and apple crops are being hurt and wells are drying up."

Two hundred miles away in Nepal's capital, Kathmandu, Simon Lucas, a climate change officer at the UK Department for International Development, confirmed that river flows in winter have seriously declined. "The trends are clearer in Nepal than in other countries," he said. "People cannot plant their crops in the spring because the winter snows are not so heavy. They have always relied on snow and glacier melt".

Britain last week earmarked £50m for Nepal to adapt to climate change, mainly through investing in its forests, but climate scientists say it faces ever more erratic, intense and unpredictable rainfall. We found the evidence for that when we headed south towards Nepal's border with Bihar state in India. Here the problem is not too little water but far too much; last year, following torrential monsoon rains, Nepal's greatest river, the Khosi, broke though two kilometres of embankment and flooded hundreds of square kilometres of farmland. Nearly 1,500 people died and 3 million people were displaced. Fifty thousand people in Nepal and many more in India lost their homes, and the river changed its course by more than 150km.

The Khosi is known as "the river of sorrow" because it often floods, but the scale of what happened last August shocked both Indian and Nepalese governments. When the waters finally receded, people found vast areas of farmland covered by a 6ft-deep sea of sand brought down in suspension from the mountains. Seven months on, the embankment has been repaired but people are devastated and everyone is frightened that this kind of flood will become more common.

"It's impossible to cultivate anything", said Ashma Khatoum, a farmer. "There are no toilets, or clean drinking water. I don't believe we will ever get back to normal again."

We crossed the Indian border and went straight from severe flood to deep drought. Bihar, one of India's poorest states, is experiencing one of its worst droughts in a generation. This year it has had only 15-30% of its usual rains. Most of the state has been declared a drought zone and 63 million people are expected go hungry next year.

"Climate change is definitely happening," said Vyas Ji, principal secretary in the department of disaster management in the Bihar state capital, Patna. "We used to have droughts every four or five years and floods every two to three years. Now it's very erratic. Even the flood-prone districts are facing drought. Rainfall used to be predictable, limited and beneficial to farmers. Now it is unpredictable, heavier and harmful. Now there is no winter. Farmers are confused. This was a rice cultivating state but the seedlings get destroyed."

We headed south again, to Kolkata, one of India's great cities, which last week was warned again by international scientists that it was acutely vulnerable to sea level rises. Here temperatures have risen significantly and there are more cases of dengue fever and malaria, said the city mayor, Bikash Bhattacharya. "Copenhagen is the last chance that the poor have. If we do not succeed and we go on with business as usual, then the world's poor people will have a very hard time."

"Climate change is not the future. It is now. Tens of thousands of Indians are already in a critical situation," said Sugata Hazra, director of Jadavpur University's school of oceanography in Kolkata. His researchers have recorded sea levels in the Bay of Bengal rising far faster than the global average, and more cyclones hammering the coast. The result is the inundation of islands from higher tides and surges.

"The rate of relative sea level rise in the Sagar Islands [in the Indian Sundarbans] is 3.14mm per year, which is substantially more than the global average of 1-2mm per year. It is up to 5.2mm in some places. By 2020 at least 70,000 people will have been made homeless."

Anurag Danda, head of WWF's Sundarbans delta programme, appealed to politicians in Copenhagen for help. "For the people of the Sundarbans, climate change has arrived. The Maldives gets the attention, but there are many other people facing disaster."

From Kolkata we headed to the Bangladeshi border. There, India is building a 15ft fence to keep its neighbours out. For the moment those wanting to leave are mainly young men seeking work in the booming Indian economy, but in future, say analysts, it could be climate refugees.

Bangladesh is by far the most densely populated large country in the world and, being entirely on a low-lying delta, it is one of the most vulnerable. It stands to lose 20% of its land to sea level rise in the next 80 years and is already experiencing more frequent and more intense cyclones. In the last seven years, four of the most powerful storms ever recorded have slammed its coasts.

Climate change, on top of all its other problems, means Bangladesh faces even deeper problems, said Kim Streatfield, director of the Centre for health and population research at ICDDR, an international research institution in Dhaka. He fears the combination of climate change and an expected 50m-100m population rise in the next 50 years will devastate the country unless action is taken. "Increasing salinity in the water will have a major effect on food production," he said. "In addition, the water table is dropping two to three metres a year, and one in four wells can be dry in the dry season."

Our south Asian climate odyssey from source to sea ended south of Chittagong, on the Bay of Bengal. There, where the waters of the Kali Gandaki, the Ganges and Nepal's many other rivers reach the ocean, communities are experiencing higher tides and more flooding, as well as the loss of farmland and fishing.

"The sea water now comes right into our houses. We would all like to move, but there is nowhere to go," said Geeta Das, a teacher in Bolihut village, near Chittagong. Her home has been partly washed away and her bed is now just a foot from where the waters reached a few weeks ago. "We panic when it is cloudy and it is about to rain. We fear we will lose our children."

A neighbour, Madhuri Das, said: "We do not need scientists or anyone to tell us things are changing. We know the sea level is rising. We have always lived here. The floods are more frequent and we now fear the sea. Ten years ago, the sea water never came to the village. We cannot afford to raise our houses except on mud, which gets washed away. We can't use the toilets, and diseases are now more common. Our water is no longer sweet."

Nurun Nahar, a Bolihut fisherman, gave up his trade when catches declined precipitously three years ago. His experiences speak for the 700m people who depend on Nepal and the Himalayas for their lives: "We are poor so we cannot do much to adapt on our own to what we can see is taking place. But we do not want to depend on nature any more. We see so many changes happening. All we want is a secure life. We are resilient but we must look to the rich to help us make this world a better place."

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