NewsWatch: Stock futures up as GM's finance arm gets U.S. cash injection

U.S. stock market futures rise as Washignton expands its bailout plans for General Motors, while investors await the latest reading on consumer confidence, which is expected to show a slight recovery.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 2:00 pm

Wall Street set for boost on GMAC bailout

A fresh bailout for General Motors was set to give Wall Street stocks a small boost towards the end of one of their worst ever years
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:58 pm

Israel in 'all-out war' on Hamas

Israel has declared it was in 'all-out war' against militant Palestinian group Hamas as international calls grew for a diplomatic solution to be found
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:56 pm

World markets gain, led by higher energy stocks (AP)

Japanese visitors applaud during a ceremony to mark the end of this year's trading at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Tuesday morning, Dec. 30, 2008. The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average rose 112.39 points, or 1.28 percent, from Monday to 8,859.56 in the half-day session. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)AP - Most world stock markets gained in light holiday trading on Tuesday as Middle East tensions boosted energy stocks.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:54 pm

Wall Street to open higher on latest auto bailout (Reuters)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, December 29, 2008. (Lucas Jackson/Reuters)Reuters - Stocks were poised to rise at the open on Tuesday after Washington expanded its bailout of the auto industry, while volume was expected to be light in the holiday-shortened week.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:53 pm

Wall Street to open higher on latest auto bailout

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were poised to rise at the open on Tuesday after Washington expanded its bailout of the auto industry, while volume was expected to be light in the holiday-shortened week.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:53 pm

Wall Street to open higher on latest auto bailout (Reuters)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, December 29, 2008. (Lucas Jackson/Reuters)Reuters - Stocks were poised to rise at the open on Tuesday after Washington expanded its bailout of the auto industry, while volume was expected to be light in the holiday-shortened week.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:53 pm

Global growth seen weak as lending stagnates

LONDON (Reuters) - Global growth will be very weak next year, a senior European banker warned on Tuesday, and loans to companies and household in the euro zone stagnated, raising new concerns about the extent of the credit crunch.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:51 pm

U.S. puts up $6 billion to support GMAC

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration on Monday expanded its bailout of the U.S. auto industry, saying it was buying $5 billion in equity in auto and mortgage finance company GMAC and increasing a loan to General Motors by $1 billion.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:49 pm

U.S. puts up $6 billion to support GMAC (Reuters)

General Motors vehicles are seen at a car dealership in Toronto, December 12, 2008. (Mike Cassese/Reuters)Reuters - The Bush administration on Monday expanded its bailout of the U.S. auto industry, saying it was buying $5 billion in equity in auto and mortgage finance company GMAC and increasing a loan to General Motors by $1 billion.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:49 pm

Futures Movers: Oil futures fall below $40 a barrel in thin trading

Oil futures fall below $40 a barrel in thin trading after posting strong gains in the previous session on concerns that Israeli air raids in Gaza may disrupt oil supplies from the region.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:47 pm

As Tension In Nigeria Worsens, Oil Eyes $50 For Early 2009

Tx00338coilwellgusherodessatexasposDrops in consumer and corporate spending are about to compounded by high fuel prices as crude is likely to move to $50 or better early in 2009.

Both sides in the Gaza conflict has indicated that the fighting could go on for weeks, and there is no reason to believe that the passions on between the parties will not stretch that into months. The 2006 Lebanon War went on for over thirty days.

The Middle East conflict and its effect on oil prices is likely to be worsened by a looming military conflict in Nigeria.

According to Bloomberg, "The arrest of suspected militant leader Sobomabo Jackrich by the Nigerian military may push rebels into retaliating against the government, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta group said."

Early in 2008, oil experts said that battles inside the country's borders have cut "around 17 percent of the West African country's installed output capacity of around 3 million bpd." Nigeria's oil reserves rank 10th among the world's nations, just ahead of the US.

In July, the rebel group said it would escalate attacks on oil facilities if it did not receive substantial payments from the central government.

With two million barrels of oil produced per day, a shutdown of Nigeria's oil shipments would be a much bigger issue for crude prices than the current Gaza military conflict.

Although it has been less visible than the problems in the Middle East, Venezuela president Hugo Chavez may be working to take control with the entire government, which would put him at odds with a number of powerful opposition parties and could spark a civil conflict.

The next few weeks could set the tone for oil prices which could stretch well into 2009.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:41 pm

Before the Bell: General Motors, Ford, Dow Chemical, bank earnings in focus

U.S. stock market futures gain after General Motors Corp.’s financing arm said it would receive more cash from the government, while investors also awaited a reading of consumer confidence due after the market opens.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:40 pm

This oil man favors a gas-tax hike

It's not often you hear a corporate executive advocate a tax on the product he sells, particularly not in the oil business, where opposition to gasoline taxes is fervent. But Paul Foster, the chairman and CEO of El Paso-based Western Refining, is (dare we say use the word after the presidential campaign?) a maverick.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:37 pm

U.S. throws GMAC $6 billion lifeline

In yet another move to prop up the crumbling U.S. auto industry, the government announced Monday that it will pump $6 billion into GMAC Financial Services, a financing company critical to the survival of General Motors.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:37 pm

Earnings Watch: Updates, advisories and surprises

A roundup of the latest corporate earnings reports and what companies are saying about future quarters.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:31 pm

Dow scrambling to keep $15 billion Rohm takeover alive: report

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Dow Chemical is scrambling to keep its $15 billion takeover of rival Rohm & Haas alive after a surprise decision by the Kuwaiti government to scrap a joint venture with Dow, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:28 pm

Automakers set to rally as GMAC secures U.S. funding

Shares of U.S. automakers General Motors and Ford rally ahead of the opening bell, buoyed by news that GMAC Financial Services had received government funding.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:25 pm

AIG bailout: $127.7B and counting

To help troubled insurer American International Group stabilize its finances, the Federal Reserve and Treasury have offered AIG a sizeable lifeline to be paid back over the next five years - and to date, the company has borrowed almost all of it.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:24 pm

Health-care cure: cell phone

In many countries outside the United States, the cell phone is technology's answer to the Swiss army knife, functioning as a wallet, personal computer and more.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:16 pm

Hold off on financial stocks

It's a simple rule of thumb: When earnings drop, stock prices follow suit. But when earnings rebound, that doesn't mean stocks will bounce back as well -unless they're financial services stocks, which rise and fall alongside profits, says FBR Funds President and Chief Investment Officer David Ellison.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:12 pm

Congress to ask SEC how it missed Madoff

Read full story for latest details.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:07 pm

Stocks ready to roll higher

Stocks were poised to rally Tuesday after new government action aimed at helping General Motors and ahead of the release a key measure of consumer confidence.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:06 pm

Early Analyst Calls (AF)(AXYS)(FEED)(YUM)

Deutsche_bank_logoAstoria (AF) remains "underperform" at FBR.

Axsys (AXYS) upped to "buy" at Morgan Joseph.

Yum! (YUM) upgraded to "buy" at Argus.

AgFeed (FEED) downgraded to "neutral" at Global Hunter.

Sources: Briefing.com and wire services.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:01 pm

G.M.A.C. Joins the Pack

It’s an auto-finance company! No, it’s a bank-holding company! Wait! It’s both — and it is yet another company getting a handout from Washington.

G.M.A.C. will get $6 billion from Washington: the Treasury is buying $5 billion in senior preferred shares that pay an 8 percent dividend from G.M.A.C. and will lend it another $1 billion. The money is aimed at keeping G.M.A.C. able to lend to car buyers, thus contributing to the lifeline for General Motors, which before the government investment owned 49 percent of G.M.A.C. The private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, which owns Chrysler, owned 51 percent before the Treasury stake.  G.M.and Chrysler are receiving $13.4 billion from Washington, and ensuring that that money is not being spent in vain is the main reason for propping up G.M.A.C.

It has been overused phrase during the financial crisis, but it can truly said of G.M.A.C. that it has suffered a perfect storm: Its auto financing business has been hammered by the plunge in auto sales, its mortgage business has virtually collapsed in the housing slump, and it is struggling with is own debt in the financial crisis. Add to that its controlling stake by a private equity firm, Cerberus Capital Management, and you have a formula for trouble with a capital T, and that doesn’t necessarily stand for TARP.

Indeed, the money going to G.M.A.C., as the Wall Street Journal notes, raises the question about whether the government’s rescue of Detroit could become open ended.  The Journal notes that Treasury has set up a separate program within the $700 billion TARP, which was intended for financial institutions, onethat does not have a specific dollar limit.

The agreement with Treasury comes amid some confusion over whether G.M.A.C. has achieved its goal of swapping at least 75 percent of some $38 billion in debt. The swap was aimed at reducing its debt load so that it could qualify as a bank holding company. Ahead of a deadline last Friday, the company had about 60 percent tendered. So did the government make an exception for G.M.A.C.?

In any case, Felix Salmon points out that the holdouts in the swap now have reason to feel “pretty smug” about their decision: their G.M.A.C. debt is senior to the preferred equity that Treasury is buying.



Related Links
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Source: Portfolio.com: Top 5 | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

UAE's Dana Gas announces Egypt gas, condensate find

DUBAI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - United Arab Emirates-based Dana Gas said it made a gas and condensate discovery in Egypt's Qawasim formation, its fourth find this year in the North African Country.
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:58 pm

Music labels eye Hulu.com

A deal to host music on the up-and-coming video site could be a blow to YouTube.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:52 pm

Dollar slides against euro, yen

Read full story for latest details.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:51 pm

Wall Street points higher after modest decline (AP)

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2008 in New York. Wall Street rose modestly in light holiday trading Wednesday after the government released downbeat, but unsurprising, readings on U.S. joblessness and consumer spending. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)AP - Investors nearing the end of a brutal 2008 made some modest bets Tuesday, pointing Wall Street toward a higher open. The market was awaiting a reading on consumer confidence and reviewing the government's decision to provide $5 billion to General Motors Corp.'s troubled financing arm.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:49 pm

Record low rates for UK tourists

UK holidaymakers heading to Europe over the New Year will get the fewest euros for their pound since the euro was introduced.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:45 pm

Ukraine govt approves compromise with Gazprom-Ifax

MOSCOW, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine's government has agreed to a compromise solution with Russia over debts and gas supplies for next year, Interfax news agency quoted a Ukrainian government source in Kiev...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:44 pm

UK house prices fell 12.2 pct year-on-year in Nov.

More bad news for Britain's ailing housing market came out Tuesday, as government figures showed that house prices in England and Wales fell by 12.2 percent in November compared to the same
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:43 pm

SKorea's industrial production plunges in November

South Korea's industrial production plunged in November, official data showed Tuesday, underscoring the country's vulnerability to the global economic slowdown. Industrial output...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:39 pm

Chesapeake Corp. files for bankruptcy protection

Specialty packaging company Chesapeake Corp. has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and plans to sell itself to a group of investors for about $485 million. The company's stock,...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:28 pm

London's FTSE 100 index up 44.13 at 4,363.48 (AP)

AP - Share prices on the London Stock Exchange were higher at midday Tuesday.
Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:22 pm

London's FTSE 100 index up 44.13 at 4,363.48

Share prices on the London Stock Exchange were higher at midday Tuesday. At noon, the FTSE 100 share index was up 44.13 points at 4,363.48.
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:22 pm

7 winning industries

Despite frozen credit and slow consumer spending, a (precious) few sectors are thriving. Successful industries sell anything with the word "dollar" in it, lipstick, Wii and Spam.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:19 pm

UPDATE 1-India's Reliance Comm starts nationwide GSM service

MUMBAI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - India's dominant CDMA mobile operator, Reliance Communications , will also offer GSM-based mobile services across the country from Wednesday, in a move to lure more users in...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:15 pm

Housing market sees another fall

House prices fell by a further 1.9% in November as activity in the market dropped again, says the Land Registry.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:15 pm

Gazprom renews Ukraine gas threat

Russian gas giant reiterates it would cut gas supplies to Ukraine if it does not pay out its debt.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:04 pm

Oil falls below $40 on grim economic outlook (Reuters)

A woman fills petrol into her car at a filling station in Puchheim westward of Munich in this December 12, 2008 file photo. (Michaela Rehle/Reuters)Reuters - Oil fell below $40 a barrel on Tuesday, pressured by gloom about prospects for world economic growth which outweighed heightened tensions in the Middle East due to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:02 pm

Oil falls below $40 on grim economic outlook

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell below $40 a barrel on Tuesday, pressured by gloom about prospects for world economic growth which outweighed heightened tensions in the Middle East due to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:02 pm

Japan auto sales plunge as young lose interest

To get around the city, Yutaka Makino hops on his skateboard or rides commuter trains. Does he dream of the day when he has his own car? Not a chance. Like many Japanese of his...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:02 pm

European stocks rise as Tokyo ends shocking year (AFP)

A pedestrian passes an electronic stock index board in central Tokyo. European stock markets on Tuesday extended their pre-New Year rally, shrugging off overnight losses on Wall Street and news of Tokyo's worst 12-month period since 1949.(AFP/File/Kazuhiro Nogi)AFP - European stock markets on Tuesday extended their pre-New Year rally, shrugging off overnight losses on Wall Street and news of Tokyo's worst 12-month performance since 1949.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:01 pm

Survey: credit tightening for German firms

Companies in Germany are finding credit from banks ever harder to come by as the global financial crisis deepens its hold on Europe's biggest economy, with larger manufacturers particularly
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:00 pm

Wall Street points higher after modest decline

Investors nearing the end of a brutal 2008 made some modest bets Tuesday, pointing Wall Street toward a higher open. The market was awaiting a reading on consumer confidence during...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:59 am

GMAC is thrown $6bn lifeline by US Treasury$

The US Treasury has agreed a $6 billion ($£4.1 billion) rescue package for GMAC, General Motor’s ailing finance arm, in a move that will help the business to survive by making it easier to turn itself into a bank holding company.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:59 am

Airlines "shrinking by all measures": IATA

GENEVA (Reuters) - International airlines saw a huge 13.5 percent fall in cargo traffic in November and a drop of 4.6 percent in passengers as business shrank across the industry, the carriers' grouping IATA said on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:57 am

Europe Markets: European shares step higher as auto sector gains

European shares step higher in thin trading, with automakers in Germany and France getting carried along as General Motors’ finance arm receives more U.S. government funds, though HBOS and Lloyds fall in London on reports of a possible challenge to their merger.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:56 am

London Markets: U.K. shares gain as HBOS, Lloyds TSB come under pressure

U.K. shares rise for the second straight session following the Christmas break, helped by another strong performance from oil stocks, though Lloyds TSB and HBOS are both under pressure following a report of a possible challenge to their merger.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:53 am

Apparel makers to ask retailers for concessions: report

(Reuters) - Clothing manufacturers, irked by the deep holiday discounts offered by retailers, may force department stores to absorb a larger chunk of the markdowns, Bloomberg reported.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:49 am

Posted Without Comment: Housing Getting Worse

For_sale_signAccording to The Wall Street Journal, "The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index is expected to reflect the continuing toll exacted by the deflating housing bubble. J.P. Morgan estimates that the October year-over-year decline will be 18.2%. In September, the 20-city composite index fell 17.4% from a year earlier."

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:41 am

Old News, New Wrapping: Car Industry Bad Next Year

95129c Thanks for this. Reuters reports that "The auto sector is expected to be the most financially troubled industry in the United States next year, taking the top spot from the homebuilding group, according to a survey of restructuring and bankruptcy professionals released on Monday."

No point in doing the survey next year. The results won't change.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:36 am

Congress to examine Madoff case on Monday

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Lawmakers will take their first close look next Monday at financier Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion fraud and why the Securities and Exchange Commission failed to discover the scandal.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:31 am

Consumer Confidence Is The Opposite Of Consumer Spending

AngrybearThe Wall Street Journal makes the point that consumer confidence does not mean much if it does not go hand-in-hand with consumer spending. As the paper reports "Gasoline is still getting cheaper, retailers and auto makers are practically giving stuff away." People feel better, which means very little.

The actual dynamics of consumer confidence may actually be much, much worse than that, especially in a period when credit is not available, joblessness is rising, and Americans are still deeply in debt.

Consumer confidence may actually be a negative indicator for consumer spending. A citizen who takes a dollar he might have spent on a new TV and puts it into a savings account or pays down a credit card balance takes a sale out of the economy. If the action improves the chance that his financial future will be brighter, he may do it every month. That pushes his confidence up. He is better off today than he was 30 days ago.

It actually makes a great deal of sense that consumer confidence could rise, or at least stay flat, as the recession deepens, no matter how counterintuitive that may seem at first. A recession tends to drive individual spending into hibernation as people hoard dollars to save their own skins. The by-product may be good long-term. As the savings rate moves up, so does the chance that people will not have to go onto the government payroll in their advanced old age.

The microcosm of the consumer spending conundrum can be seen in this year's holiday spending numbers. Retailers posted poor results. Consumers who did not spend a dollar used it for something they thought was more important. Their kids felt worse because they did not get the new GI Joe or Barbie, but kids are not part of the consumer confidence poll. The parents were relieved that more money stayed in the mattress.

In a remarkably perverse way, watching a neighbor lose a job may also help consumer confidence, at least a month at a time. People who keep jobs may even have a sunny outlook. They have not be taken off to the gallows. A month with employment is a good month.

Consumer confidence is an outstanding sign of falling consumer spending, perhaps the best one around.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:29 am

Sir Tom Hunter's USC sent reeling by Boxing Day rent demand

The empire of Sir Tom Hunter, the billionaire entrepreneur and philanthropist, unravelled further yesterday as one of his flagship ventures fell into administration.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:20 am

US offers $6bn bail-out for GMAC

The US Treasury unveils a $6bn rescue package for GMAC, General Motors' troubled car loan arm.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:17 am

Ford (F) And The Self-Parking Car Debacle

Ford"Baby, you can drive my car /yes, I'm gonna be a star/ Baby you can drive my car /And maybe I'll love you."--The Beatles.

The matchless idiocy which has defined the fall of the US car industry can be summed up by one event. Ford (F) is introducing a "self-parking" automobile.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Ford Motor Co. plans to offer two Lincoln models next year that can park themselves, the latest move in a strategy aimed at improving the public's image of the auto maker." It is hard to imagine how the "improvement" part of that works.

Somewhere in the bowels of the Ford design center an overeducated engineer came up with a plan which would allow a driver to get out of his car and watch it move its big, shiny body into a parking space. The engineer probably got a new patent to his name. A product development team then drew up a budget for the thing--probably several million dollars. It then went over to "The Glass House", Ford's headquarters, and though an inept process, the program was approved.

No one knows for certain, but the new parking feature will probably add about $1,000 to the cost of a Lincoln, which is the division of Ford which will offer the option.

New, complex car features may well cost more to develop than they bring in as revenue. They are "elective" portions of the car-buying experience. If a consumer does not want to have his car parked by his car, he will simply say "no" to the $1,000.

Every time an American car company adds complexity to its manufacturing process it costs money. Ditto for developing features. At that point, another hurdle has been created for the consumer to ponder. A feature is not a feature if no one wants it.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:10 am

Indications: Stock futures up as GM's finance arm gets U.S. cash injection

U.S. stock market futures rise as Washignton expands its bailout plans for General Motors, while investors await the latest reading on consumer confidence, which is expected to show a slight recovery.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 11:07 am

Looking To "The Land Of The Rising Sun" For US Economic Future (SNE)(TM)

Jap_2The Japanese stock market has closed down about 42% for the year. The US markets may do a little better than that, off by 38% or so. For people with money in the market, the distinction may not mean much.

A great deal of the economic trouble in Japan is that its exports are falling rapidly. Since they are such a critical part of the country's economy, as the global economy gets worse Japan will continue to suffer.

Recent estimates of how bad things will be in Japan may have been greatly understated. According to Bloomberg, "Japan's economy will probably shrink at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter, the sharpest drop since 1974, as exports collapse, Barclays Capital said." Previous estimates have been in the 4% to 5% range.

Japanese companies are closing or idling production facilities at a rapid pace. Even the leaders of the export economy such as Toyota (TM) and Sony (SNE) are in deepening trouble.

The situation in the US may not be terribly different from Japan's, which means estimates of how much American GDP will fall are probably understated. According to the Commerce Department, exports as a percentage of the economy were more than 11% in 2006. That number was probably up in 2007 and this year. In 2002, the figure was only 9.6%.

The total value of US exports is being decimated due to the falling value of the dollar and the global recession. That sits on top of the already frightening drop in consumer spending inside American borders. The two add up to a number which is much worse than most economists are predicting.

The feckless Alan Greenspan recently said that he sees GDP dropping faster than some estimates based on economic numbers from October. He may be right for once.

The recession in the retail industry has turned into a depression. There are credible estimates that 25% of retailers in the US could file for bankruptcy in the next two years. Experts say 72,000 retail outlets could close in the first half of 2009. That could knock out more than a million jobs.

At this point it is assumed that some sectors of the economy will hold up. Tech belongs on that list. So does the defense industry. But, other large industries are posting results that are getting worse with each passing day. That would certainly include autos, hospitality, and media. Each employs millions of people. Each has revenue which is falling faster than what was forecast just a quarter ago.

Estimates for US Q4 GDP and projections for early next year are way to optimistic.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 10:53 am

Pakistan shares fall another four pct (AFP)

A Pakistani stockbroker looks at the latest share prices during a trading session at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) on December 29. Pakistan's main stock index continued its downward slide Tuesday, with shares shedding another four percent -- meaning the market has lost more than a third of its value in two weeks.(AFP/Rizwan Tabassum)AFP - Pakistan's main stock index continued its downward slide Tuesday, with shares shedding another four percent -- meaning the market has lost more than a third of its value in two weeks.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 10:49 am

Tuesday's biggest moving stocks

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Tuesday's session are Dow Chemical Co., Nationwide Financial Services, Rohm & Haas Co., and El Paso Corp.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 10:41 am

Israel vows a 'long' Gaza campaign: reports

As Israel marks the fourth day of a fierce air assault on Gaza, the country’s interior minister Meir Sheetrit rejects the possibility of a ceasefire, vowing the attacks will continue until the threat of rockets from Hamas is completely eliminated.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 30 Dec 2008 | 10:38 am

Photography studio ceases trading

Photography studio Olan Mills ceases trading and says it will shortly appoint an administrator.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 30 Dec 2008 | 10:31 am

GMAC's $7 Billion Deal: Too Little, Too Late

R218533_855025GMAC finally got its designation as a commercial bank. That allowed the firm to get $6 billion in federal money, $5 billion of which comes from the Treasury Department in exchange for preferred notes.

The thought behind dumping all of this capital into GMAC is that it may help restart the company's auto loan business and also build a floor under the firm's flagging mortgage business. But, it is probably too little money, and there is no reason to believe that GMAC will lend out any of the cash to potential car buyers.

According to The Wall Street Journal, GM (GM) and Chrysler have undermined their own sales because of trouble at their lending units. "Both financing companies have been restricting credit as their own finances worsened." A look at the money that the government has put into commercial banks shows that most of the capital has been used for reserves and not lending.

GMAC may have good reason not to push more car loans. While it may help GM cut inventory, lending to consumers to buy autos is extremely risky. Many buyers already have trouble paying their mortgages and credit cards, raising the chances of default. And, used cars are as worthless as used Kleenex. The market is flooded with previously owned vehicles that no one wants. They are poor security for car loans.

The money coming to the car lending firm may also be much less than it will need longer term. In an SEC filing last month, GM said that the GMAC exposure to mortgage loans would continue to destroy its balance sheet as home default rates rise and house values fall.

The GMAC transaction looks a great deal like most other government "rescues" of financial operations. It is a start. It may help the operation for a few months, but what happens as the value of the GMAC loan portfolio continues to slide? In all probability, the federal government will have to throw more money into the pot.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 10:21 am

Chinese shares fall in slow preholiday trading (AP)

AP - Chinese stocks fell for a seventh straight session on Tuesday, as banks and property developers led a broad decline in lackluster trading.
Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 9:29 am

Apparel makers to ask retailers for concessions: report (Reuters)

A shopper looks over discounted merchandise at Macy's department store in New York, December 23, 2008. (Mike Segar/Reuters)Reuters - Clothing manufacturers, irked by the deep holiday discounts offered by retailers, may force department stores to absorb a larger chunk of the markdowns, Bloomberg reported.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 30 Dec 2008 | 9:29 am

Media Digest 12/30/2008 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg (GM)(TM)(HMC)(DOW)(F)

NewspaperAccording to Reuters, GMAC will get $6 billion from the government with $1 billion coming through GM (GM).

Reuters reports that violence in Gaza intensified.

Reuters writes that Japan is looking at a program to buy bad loans.

Reuters writes that Dow Chemical (DOW) is scrambling to keep it deal to buy Rohm & Hass for $15 billion alive.

Reuters reports that Kirk Kerkorian sold his Ford (F) shares at a large loss.

Reuters reports that a survey or restructuring professionals said that the auto industry will be the most troubled sector next year.

Reuters reports that the Lehman bankruptcy wiped out billions of dollars.

Reuters reports that bad holiday sales are weighing on mall owners.

The Wall Street Journal reports that banks are headed for their first overall quarterly loss since 1990.

The Wall Street Journal reports that airlines are having surprising success raising money.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Ford will be building self-parking vehicles.

The Wall Street Journal reports that three companies have emerged as buyers for IndyMac.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Dell (DELL) reached its environmental goal of being "carbon neutral".

The Wall Street Journal reports that the IMF supports that Obama stimulus plan.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the cost to make the Sony (SNE) PS3 has dropped by a third.

The Wall Street Journal reports that internet providers are joining the Obama plan to build out more broadband.

The Wall Street Journal reports that figures for October are expected to show another drop in housing prices.

The Wall Street Journal reports that an improvement in consumer confidence means little if it is not accompanied by spending.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the SEC revised its energy reserves rule.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the Kuwait decision to end a relationship with Dow Chemical (DOW) may hurt foreign investment in the country.

The Wall Street Journal writes that more CEOs are taking commercial flights.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a poor economy is hurting the outsourcing business.

The New York Times reports that Russia's huge Gazprom gas monopoly is in trouble.

The New York Times reports that as the US buys less from China, Germany suffers because of its business with the world's most populated country.

The New York Times reports that TV networks are doing relatively well because they can still provide large audiences.

The FT argues that the IMF is arguing for countries to increase their stimulus packages.

The FT reports that there will be a huge crack down on hedge funds due to Madoff.

The FT reports that retailers face an extremely hard 2009

Bloomberg reports that the Japanese economy could shrink 12% this quarter.

Bloomberg reports that Toyota (TM) and Honda (HMC) may end "just in time" inventory as their suppliers suffer.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:50 am

London stocks open higher (AFP)

London's stock market was trading higher on Tuesday for the second day in a row led by mining stocks on higher commodities prices.(AFP/File/Carl de Souza)AFP - London's stock market was trading higher on Tuesday for the second day in a row led by mining stocks on higher commodities prices.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:46 am

London stocks open higher (AFP)

London's stock market was trading higher on Tuesday for the second day in a row led by mining stocks on higher commodities prices.(AFP/File/Carl de Souza)AFP - London's stock market was trading higher on Tuesday for the second day in a row led by mining stocks on higher commodities prices.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:46 am

Sterling bounces off Monday's record low

Sterling this morning bounced modestly off Monday’s record low of 97.99p against the euro to trade at 97.30 but fell to a six- year low against the dollar.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:23 am

Asia Markets And Europe Open 12/20/2008 (TM)(SNE)

JapMarkets in Asia were mostly higher.

The Nikkei was up 1.3% to 8,860, but was down 42% for the year. Toyota (TM) fell modestly, and Sony (SNE) rose.

The Hang Seng fell .3% to 14,281.

The Shanghai Composte was down 1% to 1,833.

In Europe, the FTSE opened up .8% to 4,352. The Dax rose up 1.3% to 4.764 and the CAC 40 was up .9% to 3,152.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:17 am

SKorean stocks, won close worst year since 1997 (AP)

AP - South Korea's benchmark stock index and currency both rose slightly Tuesday, but still closed out their worst year since 1997, when the country was in the throes of the Asian financial crisis.
Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:12 am

Kirk Kerkorian sells remaining Ford shares

The investor spent about $1 billion acquiring a 6.5% stake in the struggling automaker this year, then saw the value of its stock plummet. ...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

In '08, investors who lost less won

Managing to not be totally wiped out qualified as a successful result in a brutal year on Wall Street. If you're...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

GMAC to get $5 billion in U.S. financial assistance

The Treasury Department's move to aid the automotive lender could free up badly needed financing for car buyers. ...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Bold innovators led AIG's stunning rise

A complex, disciplined system minimized risk and maximized profit, but it wouldn't last. First of three parts
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Gasoline prices fall in U.S. but edge up in California, raising concern

The U.S. average drops 4 cents in the last week to $1.613 a gallon. California's average climbs 0.4 cent to $1.810. Some groups blame refiners for a reduction in stockpiles. ...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

L.A. clubs offer cheaper New Year's Eve revelry

Venues on the Sunset Strip and in Hollywood are cutting cover charges and drink prices to draw partygoers. The...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Sale of IndyMac to partnership likely

Well-known investors are expected to strike a deal with FDIC for the lender by Wednesday. The Federal Deposit...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Stocks pull back amid Middle East tensions

Stocks retreated Monday as violence in the Middle East and a resulting jump in oil prices reminded investors that the market could face problems beyond the recession.
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

'Watchmen' clash far from settled

Fox wants to block Warner's release of the film version of the famed graphic novel. The trailer for the highly...
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

FDA approves Ferring Pharmaceuticals' prostate cancer drug degarelix

Federal regulators Monday approved the first new drug to treat prostate cancer in four years.
Source: RSS feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 30 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

GMAC gets $6bn injection from US Treasury

The US Treasury department unveiled up to $6bn in aid for GMAC, the financial services group that is critical to General Motors' turnaround
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 30 Dec 2008 | 7:20 am

Tokyo markets close on 42% annual fall

A brief, two-hour session of thin trading volumes and choppy buying activity brought to a close the worst year for shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 6:39 am

Japan stocks rise as Nikkei ends worst year ever (AP)

Japanese visitors applaud during a ceremony to mark the end of this year's trading at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Tuesday morning, Dec. 30, 2008. The benchmark Nikkei Stock Average rose 112.39 points, or 1.28 percent, from Monday to 8,859.56 in the half-day session. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)AP - A miserable year for Japanese stocks ended with a modest gain Tuesday that did little to mitigate the market's worst annual performance on record.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 30 Dec 2008 | 5:51 am

EMI chief in talks to buy Packer cattle ranch

First he sold off his late father's media empire. Now James Packer is in talks to sell the family cattle interests in his latest move away from the business empire built up by his father Kerry Packer, the Australian media mogul.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 3:37 am

Dow scrambling to keep $15 billion Rohm takeover alive: report (Reuters)

A photo courtest Rohm  and  Haas. (Rohm  and  Haas/Handout/Reuters)Reuters - Dow Chemical is scrambling to keep its $15 billion takeover of rival Rohm & Haas alive after a surprise decision by the Kuwaiti government to scrap a joint venture with Dow, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 30 Dec 2008 | 2:37 am

'Hard year ahead' for Australian tourism

Australia's tourism industry is headed for a tough year on the back of the global financial crisis with a drop in the number of foreign visitors expected, a new report shows. According to the Tourism Australia report, released...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 30 Dec 2008 | 2:00 am

Dow Chemical fights for deal

The Kuwaiti government's shock decision to pull out of a $17.4bn joint venture has left the US chemical manufacturer scrambling to raise capital for its acquisition of Rohm & Haas
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:35 am

BlackRock in voting rights shake-up

BlackRock is altering the distribution of voting rights among its largest shareholders in a complicated arrangement that involves exchanges of common and preferred shares
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:08 am

Fonterra warns of lower dairy payout

Fonterra is warning farmers it is increasingly likely the forecast dairy payout will be cut further. The world's largest dairy exporter, with annual revenues of about $17 billion, said today it would be reviewing its forecast payout...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 30 Dec 2008 | 1:00 am

Business Briefs - Monday

Novartis licenses herpes vaccine. The Swiss pharmaceutical firm said it has licensed an experimental vaccine for a type of herpes virus that can...


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:36 am

Trends & Innovations - Monday

Boomers fear rising medical costs


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:36 am

Bristol-Myers Squibb Spins Off Infant-Formula Giant Mead Johnson

Companies have been withdrawing their IPO filings right and left these days as the bear market lumbers on and underwriters evaporate. But on Dec....


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:36 am

In Brief - Monday

Science Applications Int'l (SAI) said it won an Army contract worth more than $97 mil to provide a mobile military vehicle inspection system....


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:36 am

Two potential bidders shun Boston Globe, Red Sox

NEW YORK/CHICAGO (Reuters) - Two Boston businessmen have denied they were interested in buying The Boston Globe newspaper and a stake in the Red Sox baseball team, which are owned by the New York Times Co.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:21 am

Credit card rates 'must not rise'

Capped interest rates on credit cards would help small businesses in the downturn, an industry body says.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:01 am

Olan Mills Photography to go into administration

Britain's biggest studio photography business has collapsed, raising fears that thousands of families will not receive pre-paid Christmas presents. Olan Mills Photography, which encouraged customers to pay in advance, was accused of pocketing funds from Christmas sales without providing goods in return.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

Problems mount for Robert Tchenguiz's Globe Pub Company

Robert Tchenguiz's pub ambitions could suffer a fresh setback in the new year amid indications that the Globe Pub Company, the tenanted pub operator set up four years ago by the millionaire's R20 investment vehicle, is close to breaching its financial covenants and faces an uphill battle to stave off administration.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

Can Entertainment Rights shareholders save Postman Pat and friends?

Entertainment Rights, the debt-laden company behind Basil Brush and Postman Pat, is trying to raise about £30 million from shareholders in an attempt to continue in business.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

Lehman Brothers chiefs' lack of plan cost creditors $75bn$

Dick Fuld, the ousted chairman and chief executive of Lehman Brothers, and his deputies cost creditors as much as $75 billion ($£51.5 billion) by rushing the stricken investment bank into a bankruptcy filing, an analysis by liquidators has found.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

Britons pay off mortgage debt in preference to borrowing against property

New signs of a deep contraction in the British economy emerged yesterday with further evidence that householders have cut retail spending and started to reduce debt.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 30 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

Taking stock

How share markets around the world have fared in 2008
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 29 Dec 2008 | 11:38 pm

Buffett and China banks top cash-rich list

Listed companies are sitting tight on their cash during the economic downturn, leaving them in a strong position to survive the crisis and with the option of acquiring some bargains
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 29 Dec 2008 | 11:33 pm

Kerkorian sells off Ford shares at deep loss

DETROIT (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian has sold off all of his remaining shares of Ford Motor Co, completing a retreat from a high-profile stake in the No. 2 U.S. automaker that cost him hundreds of millions of dollars.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 29 Dec 2008 | 11:21 pm

US stocks: Mideast tensions drive market down

Wall Street has ended an erratic session with a moderate loss as continuing violence in the Middle East reminded investors that the market could face problems beyond the recession. The collapse of a Dow Chemical Co. joint venture,...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 11:00 pm

NZ stocks: Sharemarket edges lower in early trade

The New Zealand sharemarket edged lower in early trade after United States stocks skidded as the unravelling of a big deal overshadowed gains in the energy sector. In this country leading stocks led the market down early, with...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 10:40 pm

VIX Index of U.S. Stock Option Prices Advances 1.2% to 43.90


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 10:33 pm

Vail Sees Gold Above $1,000, Recommends ETF Investment


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 10:31 pm

Downturn issues

An academic answers your downturn queries
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 29 Dec 2008 | 10:23 pm

Altman Says Obama Stimulus Plan Must Reach `Very Far'


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 10:10 pm

Pound hits new low against euro

The pound hits a new record low against the euro due to continued concerns about the outlook for the UK economy.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 29 Dec 2008 | 10:05 pm

Hear: Passive? Aggressive.

description

Housing slump: Pitching Japanese model homes in Nishinomiya.

WRH/Planet Money Flickr pool
 

Today on Planet Money:

-- Satyajit Das says the old economic order got obliterated this year, but the new one's not yet in place. Until that happens, he argues, no one really knows what to do.

-- Bill Bernstein, neurologist and genius economic historian, has an idea. Bernstein backs a style of playing in the market called "passive index investing."

After the jump, links to books about economics by Bernstein and another smartie.

Download the podcast; or subscribe. Intro music: Gnarls Barkley's "Run." Find us: Twitter/ Facebook/ Flickr.


Bill Bernstein's books include:
A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World/ The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio

John Bogle's books include:
Enough: True Measures of Money, Business, and Life/ The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 29 Dec 2008 | 9:57 pm

Goldstein Says Obama Can't Always Heed His Advisers


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 9:56 pm

Retailers who have filed for bankruptcy protection (AP)

AP - Retailers have come under growing pressure as consumers cut their spending because of the drop in home values, worries about job security, eroding credit and higher food costs. Experts expect a spate of bankruptcies after holiday sales are tallied and weaker players become unable to survive.
Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 9:56 pm

Currency: Kiwi opens firmer

The New Zealand dollar opened firmer in local trading today against the US dollar, amid renewed concerns about the US economy and heightened tensions in the Middle East. The kiwi was buying US57.97c at 8am, compared with US57.63c...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 9:00 pm

When Shopping Is Dropping

Whole lot of hollering going on about the travails of retail. The Wall Street Journal reports that analysts predict up to a quarter of all stores are having trouble and may need to declare bankruptcy.

Matthew Yglesias spins through the real implications for your local mall. The short answer is that bankruptcy might allow some stores a second life. The long answer depends on the much broader economy. "When consumer demand goes down, the first response is to discount the merchandise to make sure you can move it," Yglesias writes. "But the second response is to start stocking less inventory and operating fewer stores."

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 29 Dec 2008 | 8:32 pm

US retailers face grim outlook

US retailers are facing a dire outlook in 2009 as tight credit and scared consumers could lead to mass store closings and bankruptcies
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 29 Dec 2008 | 8:31 pm

Oil rises on Middle East tensions

Crude oil prices rise on concerns Israel's attacks on Hamas could threaten supplies from the Middle East.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 29 Dec 2008 | 7:56 pm

Funds on verge of IndyMac buy-out

One of the largest commercial bank failures of the financial crisis is close to being sold to a consortium of private equity and hedge fund investors, which include JC Flowers, Dune Capital and Paulson & Company
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 29 Dec 2008 | 7:53 pm

Crackdown on hedge funds after Madoff affair

Hedge funds are bracing themselves for a raft of more stringent requirements by investors and increasing regulatory scrutiny, following the discovery this month that up to $50bn has been lost through alleged fraud by Bernard Madoff
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 29 Dec 2008 | 7:46 pm

'Turn Around, Downsize'

Earlier this month, Columbia Business School held its semiannual Follies show. Amid jokes about MBA life and the school itself was the latest music video, "Total Collapse of the Street."

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 29 Dec 2008 | 7:42 pm

Rajadhyaksha Sees Some Returns Better Than Valuations Suggest


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 7:30 pm

IMF argues for large stimulus packages

Across-the-board tax cuts or bail-outs of troubled industries such as the automotive sector are likely to waste government money while doing little to stimulate the global economy, the International Monetary Fund warned
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 29 Dec 2008 | 7:13 pm

XM Got Sirius Problems

The NYT this weekend took a look at whether satellite radio can survive. CEO says yes, but my favorite line is this quote from an analyst, who wasn't so sure:


"But you don't have any unlevered, free cash flow, dude."

Read it here.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 29 Dec 2008 | 7:05 pm

Stone of Stone & McCarthy Sees Housing Stability Late in 2009


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:52 pm

U.K. galleries on quest to save painting

The National Galleries of Scotland are hoping to raise enough money to keep a painting by Renaissance master Titian from being taken back by its owner. Problem is, the painting has a hefty price tag. Christopher Werth reports.
Source: Marketplace | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:08 pm

Used car businessman still optimistic

Business at Mort's Imports in Ohio has remained pretty stagnant over the past few months. But owner Morton McArthur tells Kai Ryssdal he remains optimistic that his used car dealership will be able to survive the economic downturn.
Source: Marketplace | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:07 pm

So what's a hedge fund?

Hedge funds seem to make headlines when things go bad on a trading day. But what are these funds and how do they really affect the stock market? Mitchell Hartman explains the term in our latest Marketplace Decoder.
Source: Marketplace | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:01 pm

Not planning on retirement is OK

The economic crisis is ruining retirement plans for some people. But commentator Tim Eavenson thinks he'll be OK if he never retires, and he will happily exchange retirement funds for other benefits.
Source: Marketplace | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:01 pm

Chalking up the losses of 2008

Watching the stock market spiral downward this year was pretty tough. As the market went south, so did our retirement savings, college funds and other investments. Kai Ryssdal speaks with Robert Reich about those losses and how we're coping with them.
Source: Marketplace | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:01 pm

Electronic show running on low battery

The 2009 International Consumer Electronics Show promises the latest innovations in technological gadgets and products. But as Jeremy Hobson reports, attendance is expected to be much lower than in years past because retailers who sell electronics are being hit hard by the recession.
Source: Marketplace | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:01 pm

Dow Chemical down after deal implodes

Dow Chemical was set on a joint venture with a state-owned Kuwaiti company. But after the deal fell through, so did the company's shares. As Janet Babin reports, without a merger, another Dow Chemical deal may be at risk.
Source: Marketplace | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:01 pm

Gaza smuggling tunnels bombed

Israeli air strikes continue to hit Gaza. Over the weekend, 40 underground tunnels on the Egyptian border were bombed. As Daniel Estrin reports, some smugglers stand to make good money off of the crisis.
Source: Marketplace | 29 Dec 2008 | 6:00 pm

NFIB's Dunkelberg Sees Wave of Retail Store Bankruptcies


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 5:38 pm

'Maybe We Need A Downturn'

In a blog entry headlined "Maybe We Need a Downturn," listener Shawn Smith writes:

The other day on my bus into downtown SF, a down-and-out looking guy stepped on and asked if anyone could give him the dollar he was short on bus fare. Amazingly, five or six people stepped up to oblige, and it got me thinking about the economy. I've seen people ask for money on the bus before, but I've never seen five people leap to lend a hand. Hard times can create a kind of brotherhood.

He puts me mind of a report from the New York Times over Christmas. The paper says its annual Neediest Cases charity has received over $500,000 more than it had by this point last year. And that's not all. The number of people giving went up, too -- by 53 percent.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 29 Dec 2008 | 5:30 pm

Levitt Says SEC to Put More Emphasis on Enforcement


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 5:24 pm

Boyden Global's Branthover Sees `Smart' Hiring on Wall Street


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 4:19 pm

Flickinger Sees U.S. Retail Store Closings, Bankruptcies


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 29 Dec 2008 | 4:16 pm

Receivers pile on woes for Nathans

At the time of Nathans' collapse VTL owed it $112 million and parties associated with VTL's business activities owed it a further $59 million. The receivers of Nathans Finance are set to take legal action against associated parties...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 4:00 pm

NZ included in baker's aggressive expansion plan

In tough economic times, it seems there's no business like dough business. While much of the retail sector is in cutback mode, Bakers Delight is embarking on an aggressive growth campaign to recruit up to 150 new franchisees across...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 4:00 pm

From schoolboy bus to campervan boss

One of Grant Webster's fondest childhood memories is of hopping on his dad's coach and going on tours of the Waikato and Hawke's Bay regions, visiting attractions like the Waitomo Caves. "My father was a tour driver for Newmans...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 4:00 pm

David Irving: Empowering our understated heroes

Back in 2000 when the idea of The ICEHOUSE was hatched as a business growth centre to help more New Zealand companies succeed at home and internationally, I had no idea of the goldmine we had discovered. I refer to the understated...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 4:00 pm

Euro starts to deliver on its early promise

Ten years ago Europe launched its grand experiment with a shared currency - and watched it plunge so far it needed a bailout from central banks. But as the anniversary approaches of the January 1, 1999, arrival of the euro, economists...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 4:00 pm

How one family's mortgage is linked to meltdown (Reuters)

Erin Goldrick, 10, waits for her sister to get home from school in Hampton Bays, New York, December 16, 2008. (Shannon Stapleton/Files/Reuters)Reuters - Cynthia Goldrick's daughter is in and out of the hospital for brain surgery, her mother has Stage 4 lung cancer and her father has moved into a home for the elderly.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 3:19 pm

A Physicist Reviews Madoff Golf Scores

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Sand wedge please...

 
As we mentioned the other week, Bernard Madoff, the man who allegedly ran what could be a $50 billion Ponzi scheme, was simultaneously recording golf scores that looked too good to be true.

In particular, the scores seemed suspiciously steady, just like the returns he claimed to be earning for investors.

I asked Drew Baden, who chairs the physics department at the University of Maryland, to take a look...

Drew made the histogram above, comparing Madoff's scores to Tiger Woods'. Madoff didn't score as well as Woods (around 15 strokes worse on average) but he was pretty darn consistent -- more consistent than Woods.

There are lots of possible explanations for this. Woods was playing on different, presumably more difficult courses. And it looks like Madoff's numbers were all from the same course.

Drew points out that Madoff's scores make a nice bell curve, which is what you might expect if he was just a steady golfer. "I guess that if Madoff really faked his scores then he did it with Gaussian fluctuations in mind, and that takes more sophistication and effort than most cheaters would be willing to put into cheating," Drew says. "Of course, this is a guy who was pretty good at cheating, apparently, so I guess anything is possible!"

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 29 Dec 2008 | 3:10 pm

High And Dry

My goodness, we're back and the news is all still here. I'll keep this short. Drop more news/blog links in the comments, please.

Cancel that bet: Kuwait punts joint venture with Dow Chemical, citing the financial crisis.

The Washington Post opens a three-part series on the crash. Up first, a look at the drive to master risk: The Beautiful Machine.

Fun you can use: Skateboarders in California take to pools of foreclosed homes.

NPR's Mike Pesca was just talking about this very conundrum, now in Paul Krugman's column -- federal government goes to stimulus spending as states cut back.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 29 Dec 2008 | 2:21 pm

Budget Bright Spot: Parking Meters

Cities and states around are facing tight budgets as tax revenues drop. Maryland is looking at a $400 million shortfall, for instance.

And this isn't going to fix things, but the Baltimore Sun (my wife actually) reports that revenue from parking meters have risen 54% over the last four years, to $7 million. And that, the city says, is without raising rates. How?

New electronic meters. People tend to pay for more time than they need. And the days of pulling up and finding leftover time on the clock are gone.

Of course not everyone is happy about that. And one guy in the story found a way to save himself some money.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 29 Dec 2008 | 2:13 pm

JC Flowers and others close to IndyMac deal: source (Reuters)

Customers wait outside the Encino branch of IndyMac Bank in Los Angeles, July 17, 2008. (Phil McCarten/Reuters)Reuters - A consortium of private equity and hedge fund firms, including J.C. Flowers & Co, is close to a deal to buy the assets of failed mortgage lender IndyMac, a source familiar with the matter said on Sunday.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 29 Dec 2008 | 1:06 pm

Kuwait Steps Back

The Persian Gulf states have taken huge strides in recent years in showing that they can be aggressive and savvy investors of their petrodollars. The collapse of a $17.4 billion joint venture with Dow Chemical is a step backward.

In the 1970s, the oil states were criticized for investing their oil gains in European and North American real estate, especially trophy properties. The last two decades have seen the rise of sovereign wealth funds and other investment vehicles led by sophisticated managers that have invested in a wide range of businesses around the world and have developed infrastructure and a chemical industry in the region.

While these funds have had their setbacks—for example, investments in U.S. financial institutions like Merrill Lynch that still had further to fall—they have displayed a savvy, aggressive style of investing equal to older Western and Asian funds. But the withdrawal from the Dow Chemical venture shows that the investment managers are not always in charge.

Under the deal, whose final terms were agreed on December 1, the state-owned Petrochemical Industries of Kuwait would have bought a 50 percent stake in Dow Chemical's plastics unit. The transaction was hailed as a sign of long-term bullishness, despite a 70 percent slide in oil prices this year and the continuing financial turmoil. The joint venture had a strong strategic appeal, combining a cost advantage in having a Kuwaiti production partner with Dow's technological expertise and global reach.
 
By Sunday, however, long-term strategy was forgotten, as the Kuwaiti government announced that it was backing out of the deal. Despite being aware of the drop in oil prices and the financial crisis on December 1, the Kuwaiti government had decided that the deal was "very risky."

The withdrawal makes the Kuwaitis appear weak and uncertain as strategic investors. Western companies and investment firms seeking to tap Gulf riches may have reason to pause.

More troubling for future potential partners is the involvement of politics in the death of the deal. Lawmakers in Kuwait had been using the proposed joint venture to criticize the prime minister, already under attack over accusations of corruption in the government.

For Dow Chemical, it must now scramble to salvage its $15 billion acquisition of Rohm & Haas, a specialty chemicals company. Dow had planned to use the proceeds from the Kuwaiti investment to help finance the Rohm deal.



Related Links
Kuwait's Chemical Reaction
Chemistry in Chemicals
Malaise Per Gallon



Source: Portfolio.com: Top 5 | 29 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

5 Best and Worst Addictions to Cultivate During 2009

Sour economic times surface the uglier facets of human nature: Crime, penury, and addictions. We’ll all feel the need to soothe away the pain of collapse for the foreseeable future. Luckily, there are beneficial ways to play out pain-induced compulsions–and less productive ones. The best lifestyle option is always moderation, but if that kind of discipline just isn’t in you, review the addictions below for inspiration:

The 5 Best Addictions

1) Blogging

It’s fun, it’s addictive, and someone usually reads it. What better way to pass time? Best yet, it may function as a portfolio, resume booster, or, if you tend to be of the more verbose ilk, a way to make like-minded friends. And enemies.

In sum, blogging is a great way to stay entertained on the cheap.

2) Exercise

Exercise reaps innumerable health benefits, making it a beneficial addiction to entertain during hard times. Walking and jogging have the lowest overhead (one pair of good sneakers) and give the most instant gratification. For winter, the Nintendo Wii is another good bet—and beats gym fees in the long run.

3) Work

Work addictions don’t exactly foster functional families, but they sure do pay off monetarily. If you are in a position where excessive work won’t harm crucial relationships, and you’re able to funnel your compulsions into productivity, this addiction is for you. To make sure your addiction pays well, make sure you either get paid by the hour, make overtime, or have a salaried position with room to grow. Entrepreneurship also serves work addicts well.

4) Hobbies

If you have a cheap hobby, such as knitting, birdwatching, or book clubs, it’s time to get compulsive. Aspire to be an expert in your field so that you have a goal to prompt your addiction into action.

If your hobby is expensive, find a way to do it on the cheap—or replace it entirely. Downgrading equipment and memberships may make your hobby more affordable. If you must give it up, find something equally compelling. Do not turn to cognac (below).

5) Religion or philosophy

When the going gets tough, the tough get religious. Your religious tradition can be an excellent source of support, inspiration, and relief. If you are not religious, your philosophy may provide a similar sense of solace. Many people find addiction to adage extremely helpful during hard times.

If your dogma requires that you hate people, however, you may find that a religious addiction fosters paranoia as well as peace. The beliefs you involve yourself—and their consequences—are ultimately your own choice.

The 5 Worst Addictions

1) Cognac

Like wine and beer, cognac can be purchased for cheap. Unfortunately, an addiction to cheap cognac is an actual health hazard that will pickle your liver in a smooth half-decade. Assuming you polish off two bottles of reasonable to excellent cognac a week, an addiction can set you back from $80 to $13,000/week. Better to stick to Pabst Blue Ribbon or Franzia.

2) Prescription Drugs

Scarce employment and limited health insurance make this addiction a very expensive prospect. When you receive prescription drugs, research them for addictive potential, and keep an eye on your intake habits. It is very easy to end up with a cabinet full of prescription drugs after only a couple of doctor visits. Don’t get too cozy with your little white pills, or you’ll find your pockets empty in a flash.

3) Slot Machines

If you must gamble, try something with a higher probability of winning, like blackjack. Don’t let bright colors and blinky lights fool you–slot machines will almost invariably rip you off.

4) Shopping

This addiction might serve the macroeconomy well, but in an unstable employment environment, individuals need to squirrel away money for hard times. Foresaking those new Seven jeans and Burberry boots in favor of cheaper, albeit less trendy, duds will go a long way towards keeping your personal finances in the black. You may want to give up and join the bankrupt masses, but if you can spare yourself this trouble, it’s well worth looking less suave for a little while.

5) Doctors’ visits

Although unemployment numbers have gone up, healthcare costs have gone anywhere but down. Check out these frightening statistics from the National Coalition on Healthcare:

• Every 30 seconds in the United States someone files for bankruptcy in the aftermath of a serious health problem.

• A new survey shows that more than 25 percent said that housing problems resulted from medical debt, including the inability to make rent or mortgage payments and the development of bad credit ratings.

• About 1.5 million families lose their homes to foreclosure every year due to unaffordable medical costs.

It is a fundamentally bad time to develop hypochondria, Munchausen’s, or any other syndrome that doesn’t kill you, but takes you to the doctor all the time. If you must get sick, make sure it is acute and ultimately harmless, or that it’s something your insurance covers. Preventative measures such as exercise, relaxation, and healthy eating go a long way to prevent chronic problems.


Source: Business Pundit | 29 Dec 2008 | 12:51 pm