Exploring Anadarko's Balance Sheet (APC, STO)

Energy company asset sales have become just about the only news in the energy business. No mergers, no acquisitions, no bankruptcies, just sales. Companies are trying to position themselves and their portfolio of assets for an upturn in the economy, whenever that might happen.  Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) announced yesterday that it had sold its 50% interest in a field offshore of Brazil to Norway's StatoilHydro (NYSE:STO).

The sum was roughly $1.4 billion and the company expects to book a gain of $900 million on the sale.

Anadarko's chairman and CEO said that he expected the company "to achieve our targeted net debt-to-cap range of 25 to 35 percent by end of this year."

Right now the debt-to-cap ratio is about 42%, so Anadarko is probably going to shed something else real soon now.

The stock closed yesterday at $36.45, down about 55% from its 52-week high.

Paul Ausick
December 11, 2008


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:46 pm

Before the Bell: Procter & Gamble, Eli Lilly, Costco in the spotlight

U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open Thursday as the auto industry bailout faced an uncertain fate in the Senate and after Procter & Gamble said it would miss a quarterly sales growth target.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:43 pm

JA Solar: Cloudy Days Ahead (JASO)

Solar_panel_pic In an announcement late yesterday, JA Solar Holdings (NASDAQ:JASO) revised its revenue estimate for the fourth quarter of just $124 million, down from a range of $191.5-$220.9 billion. The company did not change its guidance on expected gross margin (5%-7%) and break-even non-GAAP earnings.

The company's CEO pointed to a "dramatic slowdown in orders" recently, which he blamed on "macro economic conditions." He did say the company expects to make a profit in 2009. One has to wonder how it plans to do that.

The stock is down 7% to $2.65 in pre-open trading this morning, 90% below its 52-week high.

Paul Ausick
December 11, 2008


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:41 pm

Jobless claims at 26-year high

The number of Americans filing new unemployment insurance claims jumped last week to a 26-year high, surpassing the number of filings economists had predicted.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:40 pm

Weekly jobless claims jump to 26-year high (Reuters)

Scott Marion leaves the Michigan Works Employment center in Highland Park, Michigan December 8, 2008. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)Reuters - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits surged to a 26-year high last week, Labor Department data showed on Thursday, as a deepening recession forced employers to cut back on hirings.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:39 pm

Futures Movers: Crude-oil futures soar 4%, extending rally

Oil futures extended their rally Thursday on rising expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut production at its meeting next week.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:38 pm

Chu dossier: Revealing Obama's Energy pick

Read full story for latest details.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:37 pm

Foreclosures dip - but only a 'temporary lull'

Foreclosure filings dropped 7% from October to November, according a report released Thursday. But don't break out the bubbly. The tide of foreclosures may be ebbing now, but the flood isn't over yet according to analysts.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:37 pm

Jobless Lines Running At 3-Decade Highs

UnemplyThe new data for weekly jobless claims is still showing many pink slips are coming.  The Labor Department said that new claims reached a 26-year high of 573,000.  That is 58,000 above the revised 515,000 of last week. Expectations were somewhere in the vicinity of 525,000.

The 4-week average also continued its rise to show a smoothing out of 540,500, up 14,250 from the prior week.  The total continued claims now sit at roughly 4.429 million.  That continued claims number is up 338,000 from last week.

This is all seeming to lay the groundwork for 8% unemployment or higher.

Jon C. Ogg
December 11, 2008


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:36 pm

No layoffs here - firms that stand by workers

In the midst of a recession, job cut announcements have become a daily occurrence. But some employers have promised no pink slips, and are sticking to it.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:36 pm

Currencies: British pound sees new record low vs. euro; dollar retreats

The British pound rebounds slightly versus the euro Thursday, a day after tumbling to another record low against the single currency amid aggressive monetary and fiscal easing by U.K. authorities.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:36 pm

Economic Report: Import prices plummet 6.7% on global slowdown

The global economic slump is driving down the prices of traded goods and services at a record pace, the Labor Department reports.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:32 pm

Earnings Watch: Updates, advisories and surprises

A roundup of the latest corporate earnings reports and what companies are saying about future quarters.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:31 pm

Economic Report: Jobless claims jump to 26-year high

The U.S. labor market weakened further last week, with the number of first-time filings for state unemployment benefits jumping by 58,000 to a 26-year high of 573,000, the Labor Department reports.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:30 pm

Economic Report: U.S. trade gap widens in Oct.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The weak U.S. economy pushed exports and imports down in October, but the overall deficit rose as the volume of oil imports spiked, a government report showed Thursday.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:30 pm

Lululemon, The Recession, and Yoga (LULU)

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) did manage to beat earnings this morning, but the guidance leaves little to be desired.  The yoga-wear company posted $0.13 EPS and posted a 34% annual gain in revenues of $87 million.  First Call had estimates at $0.12 and $86.5 million. 

Lulu's guidance for its Q4 period is now $0.15 to $0.17 EPS on revenues of $90 to $95 million.  First Call has those estimates at $0.26 EPS and $130.4 million.  The mid-point of this range is indicative of more than a 10% year over year drop in revenues and in earnings.

Shares are down 8% at $9.60 in early pre-market indications, and its 52-week trading range is $6.96 to $50.60.

The good news is that the company is still profitable.  The bad news is that Yoga is not recession-proof. 

Jon C. Ogg
December 11, 2008


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:28 pm

Woolworths closure sale kicks off

Woolworths begins a store closure sale at all 815 outlets, in what looks like the beginning of the end for the retailer.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:27 pm

2 million: job-loss forecast for '09

The nation is expected to lose 2 million jobs in 2009 and undergo economic contraction through the first half of the year, according to a widely watched report released Thursday.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:25 pm

Indications: Stock futures mixed as Senate ponders auto bailout

U.S. stock market futures tread water, as investors seek fresh signs about the state of play in the economy in data on weekly jobless claims. The auto industry bailout passes a vote in the House of Representatives but faces stiff opposition in the Senate, putting GM and Ford back in the spotlight.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:24 pm

Pound in another record euro low

The British pound continues its sharp decline against the eurozone currency, reaching a new record low of 1.1238 euros.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:21 pm

China's yuan set to weaken for six months

China's currency is expected to continue to weaken against the U.S. dollar in coming months, albeit at a moderate pace, as authorities weigh the political and economic benefits of a weaker currency in propping up the export-oriented economy.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:21 pm

Costco profit rises slightly (Reuters)

Shoppers walk out of Costco Warehouse in Arlington, Virginia, May 29, 2008. (Molly Riley/Reuters)Reuters - Costco Wholesale Corp's quarterly profit rose slightly as strong results from its gasoline stations helped to offset weak consumer demand for all but the most essential household items.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:20 pm

Catylist Receives Second Round of Funding from Angel Investors

CHICAGO, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Chicago-based Catylist, Inc., a commercial real estate marketing and technology company, recently received additional capital from a...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:15 pm

Dow Declares Quarterly Dividend of 42 Cents per Share

MIDLAND, Mich., Dec. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW), has declared a dividend of 42 cents per share, payable January 30, 2009, to...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:14 pm

Looming Bailout Is the Death of the Big Three

by John Tamny  RealClearMarkets

Back in the early days of this decade when executive malfeasance was the scandal du jour, there was a rush among many CEOs to support Sarbanes-Oxley, a bill that would allegedly make them more honest. Sarbox on its own would have and did spook the markets, but unspoken of at the time was the oily eagerness among top CEOs to endorse a law's passage that would to some degree treat them like criminals.

To some, the way in which executives prostrated themselves before Congress was the biggest scandal of all. More soothing to an investor would have been mass protest on the part of company chiefs offended that their integrity was being questioned by a political class famous for lacking anything of the kind. We'll never know, but it's fair to wonder if part of the reason stocks sold off before and after Sarbox's passage had to do with investors wondering if CEOs were in fact corrupt; their lack of protest a suspicious signal.

Read more....


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:13 pm

2009 Board of Trustees for the ICF Foundation Announced

Foundation focuses on education, research and charitable purposes in coaching LEXINGTON, Ky., Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- The members of the 2009 Board of Trustees for...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:10 pm

Eli Lilly to post net loss for 2008 on ImClone acquisition costs

Eli Lilly & Co.'s costs associated with the acquisition of ImClone Systems will result in a 2008 net loss, wiping out the pharmaceutical giant’s earlier forecast for a full-year profit.


Source: MarketWatch.com - Top Stories | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:06 pm

JetBlue Gives Boston More of the West: San Francisco Service Set for Summer

Service to second Bay Area airport resumes May 1 Easy connections to Provincetown, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket* BOSTON, Dec. 11...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

Bexter7 LLC Announces the Bagelpod, an Innovation in Bagel Slicing

FREMONT, Calif., Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- The Bagelpod is the product of a design process that sought to address the shortcomings of alternate designs. One of...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

Caraustar Industries, Inc. Announces Closure of Richmond Paperboard Mill; Idling of Carolina Paperboard Mill

ATLANTA, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Caraustar Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: CSAR) today announced the permanent closure of its Richmond Paperboard mill in Richmond,...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

MarketAxess and Investment Technology Group to Provide Integrated Access to Equities Analytics and Fixed Income Compliance Products

NEW YORK, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (Nasdaq: MKTX), the operator of a leading electronic trading platform for credit, and Investment Technology...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

Bill Seidman, Former Chair of the FDIC and RTC, Joins SecondMarket as Senior Advisor

NEW YORK, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- href="http://www.secondmarket.com/">SecondMarket , the largest centralized marketplace for illiquid assets, announced today that
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

TRISECT Names Tim Nelson Managing Director

Position to focus on expanding shopper marketing and new business. CHICAGO, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Following three years of significant growth, TRISECT announced...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

Two-way adult sex toy tops Christmas wish lists

OTTAWA, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ - The We-Vibe, the world's first dual sex toy used while making love, is creating a lot of buzz and generating plenty of heat this...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNewsBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:00 pm

Warning: Infrastructure projects ahead

In just over a month, hundreds of billions of dollars of your money could be funneling through the hands of every politician, from the president to the mayor of the smallest American town, in a plan to jumpstart the economy.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:59 pm

Hank Paulson, Criminal?

Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz has an excellent summary of the dynamics behind the financial crisis in Vanity Fair. I wanted to cite the following passage (paragraph breaks are my own), because it’s a serious implication of Hank Paulson:

The original proposal by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a three-page document that would have provided $700 billion for the secretary to spend at his sole discretion, without oversight or judicial review, was an act of extraordinary arrogance. He sold the program as necessary to restore confidence.

But it didn’t address the underlying reasons for the loss of confidence. The banks had made too many bad loans. There were big holes in their balance sheets. No one knew what was truth and what was fiction. The bailout package was like a massive transfusion to a patient suffering from internal bleeding—and nothing was being done about the source of the problem, namely all those foreclosures. Valuable time was wasted as Paulson pushed his own plan, “cash for trash,” buying up the bad assets and putting the risk onto American taxpayers.

When he finally abandoned it, providing banks with money they needed, he did it in a way that not only cheated America’s taxpayers but failed to ensure that the banks would use the money to re-start lending. He even allowed the banks to pour out money to their shareholders as taxpayers were pouring money into the banks.

If Stiglitz is right, the media has been glazing over the severity of Paulson’s missteps. Stiglitz’s opinions do tend to run counter to mainstream verbiage–for example, he was one of the few experts who said this crisis would be as bad as the Great Depression, or worse–but he’s far too sound to dismiss as a left-wing doomsdayer.

When the bailout bill passed, it did so under a valence of desperation. We needed something. But I’m starting to think there’s an indictable offense nestled somewhere in Paulson’s behavior. I don’t say this as a partisan. There could be a serious offense in Obama’s campaign contributions, too.

I say this as someone who thinks she smells a rat.

Thoughts?


Source: Business Pundit | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:59 pm

P&G Not As Recession-Proof As Thought (PG)

P_and_g_logo Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is a company that was supposed to be about as immune to a recession as any company could be.  It is in the category behind food and water and a few others.  Everyone knows there is no such thing as "truly recession proof" but the company has just fessed up this morning that its is not immune to the current economy. 

The company's fiscal second-quarter sales are not tracking according to plan.  P&G blamed the weak economy as retailers, distributors and customers are cutting back on their spending globally.

P&G does still expect to meet its quarterly and full-year profit goals, but its organic sales will fall short of the 4% to 6% growth target in the quarter. What is interesting is that the company still expects organic sales to grow 4% to 6% for its fiscal 2009 that ends in June.

P&G also maintained its quarterly outlook of $1.58 to $1.63 EPS and full-year earnings of $4.28 to $4.38 EPS.  Analysts are looking for $1.58 EPS for the quarter and $4.28 EPS for fiscal June-2009.  Technically this is not an earnings warning.  But it is a softening up of expectations, and you should expect analysts to start adjusting their numbers down a tad more over the next few days as a result of this forecast.

While this has been a go-to defensive stock, the actual magnitude of the comments here are actually tolerable.  Shares are already down 20% from their 52-week lows, which is considerable for a company in the consumer products sector of this size.

Shares are indicated down marginally, but so far no trading volume has been seen.

Jon C. Ogg
December 11, 2008


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:57 pm

Stock futures flat on auto rescue unease (Reuters)

A trader raises his hand to bid on stock prices as he works on the main trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange early in the trading session, December 8, 2008. (Mike Segar/Reuters)Reuters - Stock futures were little changed on Thursday due to caution ahead of a likely vote in the Senate on the rescue package for U.S. automakers.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:56 pm

Stock futures flat on auto rescue unease (Reuters)

A trader raises his hand to bid on stock prices as he works on the main trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange early in the trading session, December 8, 2008. (Mike Segar/Reuters)Reuters - Stock futures were little changed on Thursday due to caution ahead of a likely vote in the Senate on the rescue package for U.S. automakers.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:56 pm

Stocks set for wobbly start

Stocks were set for a mixed start Thursday as investors wondered whether a $14 billion auto industry bailout bill will get Senate approval and awaited more signals about the troubled U.S. economy.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:52 pm

House passes Detroit bailout

The House passed a stopgap $14 billion bailout to U.S. automakers Wednesday evening, but Republican opposition cast doubts about its fate as it moves on to the Senate.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:52 pm

Recession to worsen, deflation a risk: report (Reuters)

A trader puts his hands on his head, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange December 5, 2008. (Shannon Stapleton/Reuters)Reuters - The "nasty" U.S. recession will tighten its grip next year as unemployment rises and weak home and stock prices imperil consumers, finance firms and debt-laden businesses, a UCLA Anderson Forecast report released on Thursday said.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:49 pm

Walmart Sells Whale Meat in Japan

Walmart committed to cutting energy usage and reducing waste last year, but the retail giant has a long way to go before it can be called “green.” Taking dubiously-produced whale meat off the shelves would be another step in the right direction (from the New York Whale and Dolphin Action League):

Did you know retail giant Wal-Mart is also in the business of selling endangered whale meat? A Wal-Mart-owned Japanese-based supermarket, Seiyu, Ltd., offers the meat of whales hunted in violation of the International Whaling Commission under the self-appointed guise of “scientific whaling.”

Scientific whaling, which reports on the stomach and fecal contents of hundreds of the same species of whales (in the same waters, year after year,) is considered by non-whaling nations a ruse to market whale meat for purchase. Japanese whaling fleets still kill hundreds of dolphins and whales annually. Japanese officials have recommended that pregnant women and children avoid eating whale meat yet still permit this highly toxic product, the object of ongoing international protest, on its supermarket shelves. Seiyu is a major distributor of whale products and thus is instrumental in the ongoing illegal whaling and drive fishery slaughter.

On the shelves of Wal-Mart’s book section one finds books on the illegal trade in whale products and the struggle to stop commercial whaling in Japan. Yet the world’s largest retailer has done nothing to stop the sale of whale meat in its Japanese stores.

Yuck.


Source: Business Pundit | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:45 pm

Robert Peston

Should taxpayers subsidise struggling companies' wages?
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:44 pm

FTSE-100 stock index up 13.51 points at 4,380.79 (AP)

AP - Share prices on the London Stock Exchange were higher at midday Thursday.
Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:44 pm

Wall Street heads to uneasy open (AP)

A pair of traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2008. Wall Street tussled with fresh worries about the health of financial sector and the Big Three automakers Wednesday, forcing stocks to surrender most of their early gains. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)AP - Wall Street looked to stage an uneasy advance Thursday, hopeful that a bill to rescue Detroit's carmakers will pass despite concerns that the Senate might block the aid.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:35 pm

IEA expects substantial cut from Opec

The oil cartel week needs to make a substantial cut in production when it meets next week, as global oil demand this year is expected to contract for the first time in 25 years, the International Energy Agency said
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:33 pm

Cisco: Video will spur growth

Video is the new data, says networking giant, and the answer to the its growth problem.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:32 pm

House passes auto bailout, Senate prospects grim (Reuters)

A car that has been scrapped and crushed for recycling is exhibited at the New England International Autoshow in Boston, Massachusetts December 3, 2008. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)Reuters - The House of Representatives approved bailout legislation on Wednesday that would force U.S. automakers to restructure or fail, sending the measure to the Senate where prospects for passage appeared grim.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:28 pm

Oil rises above $45 on IEA report and Saudi output

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose above $45 on Thursday after the International Energy Agency predicted global growth in oil demand would resume in 2009 and Saudi oil minister said OPEC's top exporter pumped less oil than expected last month.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:19 pm

Posted Without Comment: Deflation

According to Reuters, 'The "nasty" U.S. recession will tighten its grip next year as unemployment rises and weak home and stock prices imperil consumers, finance firms and debt-laden businesses, a UCLA Anderson Forecast report released on Thursday said.'

"Additionally, a sustained retreat in prices for goods and services is a very real possibility that would further drag on the economy, according to the forecasting unit's report."

"Where only last quarter we were worried about inflation, we are now worried about its very rare opposite: deflation," the report said. Falling prices would cut demand and discourage employers from hiring.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:18 pm

Auto bailout focus shifts to Senate

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A proposal to bail out the big three U.S. automakers passed the House of Representatives but its prospects looked grim in the Senate where supporters faced an uphill struggle on Thursday to keep it alive.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:16 pm

Costco quarterly profit up slightly

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Costco Wholesale Corp's quarterly profit rose slightly as strong results from its gasoline stations helped to offset weak consumer demand for all but the most essential household items.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:15 pm

Swedish car firms get bail-out

Sweden's troubled carmakers, Volvo and Saab, have been given a 28bn kronor (£2.3bn) government bail-out to help them cope with falling demand.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:13 pm

P&G to meet earnings outlook, sales may fall short

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Procter & Gamble said on Thursday it was on track to meet its earnings forecast for both the current quarter and the full year, though sales will probably be weaker than expected because of the recession.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:11 pm

Early Bird Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades (BLL, ONXX, RTP, TEF, ALV, ETEL)

These are some of the early bird analyst calls we are seeing from Wall Street analysts this Thursday morning:

  • Ball Corporation (NYSE: BLL) Raised to Buy at Citigroup.
  • Onyx Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ONXX) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
  • Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
  • Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Autoliv (NYSE: ALV) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
  • eTelecare Global Solutions (NASDAQ: ETEL) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

Jon C. Ogg
December 11, 2008


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:04 pm

Report: Siemens close to SEC corruption settlement (AP)

AP - Industrial conglomerate Siemens AG is close to reaching a settlement with U.S. and German authorities over its long-standing corruption scandal, daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported Thursday.
Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:01 pm

Costco (COST): Making The Poor Feel Rich

Cammonopoly_wideweb__430x3250Wal-Mart (WMT) put out strong same-store numbers for its most recently reported period. New data from MasterCard (MA) indicates that almost every other retailer in the country was bloodied during the early part of November.

One more retailer did well, even against the resistance of a deep recession. Costco (COST) reported that in its fiscal first quarter, same-store sales inched higher by 1% and total sales were up 3.6%.

Costco's earning even increased by a penny a share to $.60. This may have been a tad light compared to consensus estimates, but it is extraordinary nonetheless.

The retailing business has quickly turned into a tale of "haves" and "have nots". Among the nation's largest store companies, Sears (SHLD), Target (TGT), and Macy's (M) cannot find their own ways. Luxury stores are as dead as door nails.

The one distinction that Costco, which has some high income customers, and Wal-Mart, which does not, share is their ability to buy in bulk, pick what consumers want with uncanny accuracy, and deliver customers products which are actually values from both a quality and price standpoint. Perhaps other retailers have not learned anything from that or perhaps it would be too expensive to change their retail outlets and supply chain habits.

Costco may be the only large retailer that learned the Sam Walton lesson. Costco CEO Jim Sinegal learned his trade at the feet of company founder Sol Price. The model of success built on low prices for quality goods was never lost on him.

It shows.

Douglas A. McIntyre


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:43 am

California Crisis & California Muni Funds (BCK, BFZ, BCL, BJZ, BZA, MYC, CEV, EVM, CCA, IIC, NAC, NQC, NCA, NVC, PCQ, PCK, VCV)

California_image Burning_money_pic With 'the Governator' saying California is near bankruptcy and on the verge of financial Armageddon, there is a definite concern here which affects billions of investor dollars in municipal bond funds.  This brings about many questions about that sustainability of municipal bonds that are issued specifically in California, which are widely held by closed-end funds (and open-end mutual funds).  There are many California-only closed-end funds that trade actively each day which we screened.  Keep in mind that some funds have seen dividend interruptions and others may based upon discount to net asset values and an inability from some funds to pay dividend series.

We have outlined some of the many California funds and sorted the screened funds by name and ticker, with prices, 52-week trading ranges, indicated dividend yield (some suspended), and by market cap.

Name (Ticker)       
Price   52-week range   Yield    Mkt Cap

BlackRock California Insured Municipal Income Trust (NYSE: BCK)
$8.50    $7.15 - $15.05    7.80%    $44.8M

BlackRock California Municipal Income Trust (NYSE: BFZ)
$8.80    $7.84 - $16.51    9.60%    $133.1M

BlackRock California Municipal Income Trust II (AMEX: BCL)
$7.90    $6.85 - $15.26    8.60%    $63.2M

BlackRock California Municipal 2018 Term Trust (NYSE: BJZ)
$11.95    $9.02 - $16.05    6.10%    $76.8M

BlackRock California Municipal Bond Trust (NYSE: BZA)
$8.65    $7.66 - $17.35    9.20%    $29.5M

Blackrock MuniYield California Fund, Inc. (NYSE: MYC)
$7.89    $6.91 - $14.00    8.30%    $168M

Eaton Vance California Municipal Income Trust (AMEX: CEV)
$6.51    $5.26 - $14.65    10.30%    $46.7M

Eaton Vance Insured California Municipal Bond Fund (AMEX: EVM)
$7.00    $6.26 - $14.94    10.60%    $151.7M

MFS California Insured Municipal Fund (AMEX: CCA)
$7.75    $7.41 - $12.45    8.40%    $21.55M

Morgan Stanley California Insured Municipal Income Trust (NYSE: IIC)
$8.69    $7.24 - $14.75    7.20%    $92.6M

Nuveen California Dividend Advantage Municipal Fund (NYSE: NAC)
$8.35    $7.55 - $14.84    8.90%    $196M

Nuveen California Investment Quality Municipal Fund Inc. (NYSE: NQC)
$8.14    $6.19 - $14.25    9.00%    $110.5M

Nuveen California Municipal Value Fund Inc. (NYSE: NCA)
$8.05    $6.05 - $9.92    7.30%    $203.2M

Nuveen California Select Quality Municipal Fund Inc. (NYSE: NVC)
$8.25    $7.00 - $14.17    10.7%    $190.8M

PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund (NYSE: PCQ)
$8.06    $7.50 - $16.65    11.20%    $145.9M   

PIMCO California Municipal Income Fund II (NYSE: PCK)
$4.69    $4.25 - $14.93    17.4%    $143.3M

Van Kampen California Value Municipal Income Trust (NYSE: VCV)
$7.14    $6.69 - $16.10    $12.1%    $156.8M

As a reminder, these dividends are high because of plummeting share prices and the concern that the dividends will be cut off if they have not already been altered.  Many of these dividends are in the process of being cut or delayed due to regulations on closed-end funds.  There is also an issue about the "insured municipal" status now that the bond insurers are in their own crisis mode.

It is unfortunate, but many retirees and near-retirement age individuals own these bond funds and others as they had been buying funds which offer income that is tax-free on Federal basis and/or state income tax basis.   

The prices here are at a major inflection point.  It is similar to being on the verge of collapse.  If California gets some sort of its own bailout, imagine a new "CARP" fund in Congress, then these will skyrocket.  No such plan is known.  Some of the holdings in these funds may now resemble the pricing of CDO's with a range of $0.10 to $0.25 on the dollar, but with the same problem of indications only and no buyers nor any sellers.

Jon C. Ogg
December 11, 2008


Source: 24/7 Wall St. | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:39 am

Sharp mulls LCD factory cutbacks

Japanese electronics maker Sharp has said it may cut production of its liquid crystal display panels, because of falling consumer demand.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:37 am

Brown hits back at German criticism of his economic rescue plan ahead of summit

Gordon Brown has set the scene for a fiery European summit later today and tomorrow with a withering dismissal of the German Finance Minister who criticised his economic rescue plan.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:34 am

European stocks recover as Dow futures turn higher (AP)

A currency trader pass by a screen showing the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Korean won at the Korea Exchange Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, Dec. 11, 2008. The South Korean won, which has been battered this year, traded 2.6 percent higher against the dollar to finish at 1,358.50, after the Bank of Korea Thursday cut the benchmark interest rate. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)AP - European stocks recouped most of their early losses Thursday on expectations U.S. markets will open higher despite concerns the U.S. Senate may block the bill to rescue Detroit's carmakers.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:33 am

Government must exit private enterprise in time: SEC head

(Reuters) - The U.S. Government must create strategies to eventually dilute its involvement with private enterprise, Chairman of the Securities Exchange Commission Christopher Cox said in the Wall Street Journal.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:31 am

Charles Schwab: It will get better

Charles Schwab, 71, has a better perspective than most on the recent Wall Street free fall.
Source: Business and financial news - CNNMoney.com | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:27 am

Tesco slashes prices 50% in pre-Christmas sale

Tesco will launch a pre-Christmas sale tomorrow, slashing prices on 1,000 lines by up to 50 per cent, in probably the biggest festive season sale so far announced.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:19 am

Oil prices rise on growth hopes

Oil prices rise after a forecast that demand will rise next year, amid hopes of a production cut by Opec nations.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 11:05 am

BCE's $27.8 billion buyout collapses, say buyers

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The C$34.8 billion ($27.8 billion) buyout of Canada's biggest telecoms company BCE Inc collapsed on Thursday after the buyers said a key condition to the deal was not met.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 10:47 am

Corus workers 'may face pay cut'

Bosses at steelmaker Corus proposed that workers take a pay cut to save the firm money, the Community union says.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 10:23 am

European stocks slide on uncertainty over US auto rescue deal (AFP)

A businessman watches a share prices board in Tokyo on December 2. European stock markets have fallen after slim gains in Tokyo and Hong Kong as investors worried about the progress of a rescue plan for the troubled US auto sector.(AFP/File/Yoshikazu Tsuno)AFP - European stock markets fell on Thursday after slim gains in Tokyo and Hong Kong as investors worried about the progress of a rescue plan for the troubled US auto sector, dealers said.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 10:22 am

Futures point to weaker opening on Wall Street

(Reuters) - Stock futures pointed to a weaker opening on Wall Street on Thursday. Futures for the Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq are between 0.3 and 0.8 percent lower at 4:55 a.m. EST.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 10:16 am

HMV posts 1H loss, says markets keep weakening (AP)

AP - HMV Group PLC, the British retailer of music, DVDs, games and books, reported Thursday a net loss for the first half of its financial year as swelling costs offset higher sales. The company also warned markets had weakened further since the end of the period.
Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 10:10 am

Mining firms lose FTSE 100 place

The sharp fall in commodity prices pushes firms out of the FTSE 100 index of the UK's largest publicly listed companies.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 9:55 am

Bank of Korea stuns with record rate cut

The Bank of Korea (BoK) stunned currency and stock markets this morning with record 1 per cent cut in interest rates that far exceeded expectations and points to a much deeper economic crisis than Seoul had expected.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 9:55 am

Canada's biggest buyout collapses

The buyout of BCE, which owns Bell Canada, collapses because of the amount of debt involved.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 9:46 am

HK's main stock index ends flat (AP)

AP - Hong Kong's benchmark stock index ended flat Thursday as China's dismal economic data offset Wall Street's overnight gains.
Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 9:44 am

Germany questions UK rescue plan

Germany's finance minister strongly criticises UK plans to revive the economy, ahead of an EU summit on the economic crisis.
Source: BBC News | Business | World Edition | 11 Dec 2008 | 9:40 am

Recession to worsen, deflation a risk: report

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The "nasty" U.S. recession will tighten its grip next year as unemployment rises and weak home and stock prices imperil consumers, finance firms and debt-laden businesses, a UCLA Anderson Forecast report released on Thursday said.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 9:25 am

Government must exit private enterprise in time: SEC head (Reuters)

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Christopher Cox testifies before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington October 23, 2008. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)Reuters - The U.S. Government must create strategies to eventually dilute its involvement with private enterprise, Chairman of the Securities Exchange Commission Christopher Cox said in the Wall Street Journal.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 9:10 am

Government must exit private enterprise in time: SEC head (Reuters)

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Christopher Cox testifies before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington October 23, 2008. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)Reuters - The U.S. Government must create strategies to eventually dilute its involvement with private enterprise, Chairman of the Securities Exchange Commission Christopher Cox said in the Wall Street Journal.



Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 9:10 am

AIG says no need for 'fire sale'

Company chief says AIG expects to announce further deals to sell assets in the next few weeks but adds that under the government rescue plan, it has five years to work on its financial arrangements
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:40 am

Qantas handed $24m fine for price-fixing

SYDNEY- Qantas Airways and British Airways were fined by an Australian court today for their involvement in a price-fixing cartel in the global air freight industry, a national competition watchdog said. The Federal Court in Sydney...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:34 am

AIG CEO says asset sales may be delayed

HONG KONG (Reuters) - The CEO of U.S. insurer AIG , which is looking to shed assets around the globe as part of a $152 billion U.S. government rescue package, said that difficult markets may delay the sale plans, though certain units have attracted heavy interest.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:23 am

House approves $14bn Detroit rescue bill

President Bush faces growing resistance within the ranks of his own Republican party to a White House deal with Congressional Democrats to provide $14bn in emergency loans to Detroit carmakers
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:06 am

Stocks resume rally; gold prices jump

The stock market returned to rally mode Wednesday as a surge in gold and other commodity prices gave investors a reason to snap up shares of energy and raw-material suppliers.
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

'The Dark Knight' DVD is selling at brisk pace

Nearly 3 million copies of Warner Bros.' summer blockbuster are purchased on the first day of its home video release in the U.S., Canada and Britain. ...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Most Americans favor government intervention in economy

Sixty percent of those surveyed back assistance for homeowners facing foreclosure, and a majority favor President-elect Obama's public-works plan. But lukewarm support is shown for helping carmakers. ...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

House approves auto industry bailout

The $14-billion measure faces an uncertain fate in the Senate, where Republican opposition remains strong. The...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Slumping trade a sign of great fall for China

Exports shrank in November for the first time in seven years. China's foreign trade took a tumble last month,...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Muni bond yields soar, signaling buyers' wariness

The average yield on an index of 40 long-term muni issues tracked by the Bond Buyer newspaper rose to 6.53% on Wednesday, up from 6.49% on Tuesday and 5.84% in mid-November. ...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Plan to help troubled homeowners makes headway

National Assn. of Home Builders is now open to letting bankruptcy judges cut borrowers' loan payments and reduce their principal. ...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Yahoo urged to make search deal with Microsoft

A major investor, Ivory Investment Management of Los Angeles, says a $15-billion sale would help both companies. ...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Oversight panel grills Treasury on bailout plan

A House panel reviewing the government's $700-billion rescue of the financial sector questions how the money is being spent and whether it's being used to halt rising foreclosures. ...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

UCLA economists expect dismal 2009

Rising unemployment and lower home values are among the predictions in the quarterly Anderson Forecast. But the report's authors say there may be a turnaround in 2010. ...
Source: Infocious RSS raw feed - channel BNPaperBusiness | 11 Dec 2008 | 8:00 am

Buyers terminate C$34.8bn BCE buy-out

The buyout of Canada's BCE collapsed, a development widely expected after the telecoms group's accountants warned last month that the company that would emerge from the deal would fail a solvency test
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 11 Dec 2008 | 7:53 am

Siemens close to deal with US officials on scandal charges: report (AFP)

The logo of German engineering and electronics group Siemens. Siemens is close to reaching agreement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on a fine in connection with a corruption scandal, a press report said on Thursday.(DDP/AFP/File/Oliver Lang)AFP - German industrial giant Siemens is close to reaching agreement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on a fine in connection with a corruption scandal, a press report said on Thursday.



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 11 Dec 2008 | 7:51 am

Disgraced Carphone tycoon quits Big Yellow role

David Ross, the disgraced co-founder of Carphone Warehouse, has tendered his fourth resignation in as many days, this time as director of Big Yellow Group, the self-storage specialist.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 7:34 am

Australian stocks: Market closes one per cent weaker

SYDNEY - The Australian share market closed over one per cent weaker with losses in most sectors as traders looked to make short-term gains. At 1618 AEDT, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 42.7 points, or 1.17 per cent, at...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 7:08 am

Hundreds of jobs threatened by Rio Tinto job cuts

Hundreds of workers at Rio Tinto's aluminium smelter near Invercargill have to wait until next year to learn if their jobs are safe, as the company aims to cut 14,000 jobs globally. In response to the economic downturn, Rio Tinto...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 6:48 am

Currency: Dollar quiet versus strong Aussie

The New Zealand dollar had a fairly quiet domestic session today after briefly rising to US55c for the first time in nearly two weeks overnight. By 5pm the NZ dollar was buying US54.60c from US54.31c at 8am and US54.75c at 5pm...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 6:23 am

Stocks: Return to top stocks boosts market

The sharemarket made moderate gains today as investors returned to stocks with healthy cashflow and solid businesses, and on the back of a late rebound on Wall Street. The benchmark NZSX-50 index closed up 0.56 per cent, or 15.2...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 6:12 am

Retail sales post big drop in November

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales excluding autos posted their biggest monthly drop in five years November, as consumers, spooked by a deepening recession, pared spending for a third straight month, a private report released on Thursday showed.

Source: Reuters: Business News | 11 Dec 2008 | 5:38 am

November house prices steady but sales slump

Median house prices were down 4.1 per cent in November from a year earlier, but slightly up on October prices, new Real Estate Institute (REINZ) figures show. But while the median price was holding from a month earlier, the number...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 4:30 am

China inflation falls as growth slows

China's consumer price inflation fell to a 22-month low of 2.4 percent in November, giving the central bank free rein to cut interest rates further to offset an abrupt slump in the world's fourth-largest economy
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 11 Dec 2008 | 4:18 am

Cut fuel prices five cents by Monday, AA tells big oil

The Automobile Association is calling on petrol companies to drop fuel prices by up to five cents a litre by Monday. AA policy analyst Mark Stockdale said the Singapore benchmark price, coupled with the exchange rate has given...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 4:00 am

Business hits back at Bollard's 'cut prices' call

Business leaders have bit back at Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard after he took a swipe at oil companies, power companies, local authorities and banks, among others, for not pulling their weight in these hard economic times. In...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 2:30 am

Govt bank liability may be $275bn

The Government says consideration will have to be given to the length and extent of banking deposit and funding guarantee arrangements. Information released today indicates the Government's contingent liability for taking steps...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 2:00 am

NZ manufacturing plunges to another record low

Local manufacturing activity has plunged to another record low, according to new research published this morning. The Bank of New Zealand - Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for November shows a fall from the...
Source: New Zealand Herald - Business | 11 Dec 2008 | 1:30 am

Trends & Innovations - Wednesday

Cancer to become the No. 1 killer


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:15 am

In An Ever More Dangerous World, Biometrics Becomes Important

People sometimes lie. Their fingerprints don't.


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:15 am

Business Briefs - Wednesday

Bristol-Myers seen having edge. The drug maker surged 4.5% to 21.31 after it was upgraded to buy from hold by Citigroup, which said Bristol-Myers...


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:15 am

After The Close - Wednesday

CHEVRON (CVX), the oil giant, said Treasurer Patricia Yarrington will succeed Steve Crowe when he retires as CFO on Jan. 1.


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:15 am

In Brief - Wednesday

Office Depot (ODP), an office supply chain, will close 112 stores and slash 2,200 jobs. It rose 9% to 2.65.


Source: Investor's Business Daily: BUSINESS | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:15 am

Goldman set to toughen retirement rules

Goldman Sachs is to change its retirement rules, giving long-serving employees an incentive to leave before the end of year, in a move that could add to the 3,000-plus redundancies already announced by the Wall Street bank
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:13 am

BBC merger plan to prevent Channel 4 from going bust

Channel 4 could be merged with the profitable BBC Worldwide to prevent it going bankrupt.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:04 am

Worried Chinese leaders follow road of tax cuts

China's communist leaders have grown so anxious about the impact of the global downturn on the living standards that their citizens have come to expect, they have concluded an annual economic conference with a pledge to lower taxes and increase public spending.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

JJB Sports to get round table with creditor banks

JJB Sports secured a stay of execution from its bankers on Wednesday, despite announcing an 8.9 per cent drop in sales.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

TNK-BP to appoint new chief to help restore balance

Robert Dudley, the ousted chief executive of TNK-BP, spent the bulk of his self-imposed exile from Russia this year in Bermuda, The Times has learnt.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

Government bailout loan close for America's carmakers

Washington has reached a tentative agreement over the terms of an emergency loan for the near-bust American car industry that could result in General Motors and Chrysler receiving federal aid by next Monday.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

Banks told they must do more as they push for aid

Alistair Darling is set for a tense clash with high street banks today as he insists that lenders do much more to end the credit drought, while banking chiefs demand yet more government aid.
Source: Latest Business News from Times Online | 11 Dec 2008 | 12:00 am

Illinois seat furore drags in Jackson Jr

The furore over Rod Blagojevich, the Illinois governor, ensnared another member of the state's political elite. Jesse Jackson Jr, the Illinois representative, denied sending an emissary to speak to Rod Blagojevich about filling Barack Obama's vacant Senate seat
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 10 Dec 2008 | 11:50 pm

Hear: A Personal Bailout

description

For sale in Redondo Beach, Calif.

Clay Bosler
 

Today on Planet Money:

-- Amie Cohen bought a house just before the market tanked. Now back in school, she keeps up with the monthly note-- painful as it is. She asks a question shared by countless other homeowners: Should I get quit paying the mortgage and get help in the $700 billion bailout?

-- Economist Amir Sufi makes the case for homeowners staying the course if they can. Sufi likes the government's plan for helping them do that, but he can't help noticing which group gets help first.

After the jump, a listener writes about his personal response to the economic downturn.

Download the podcast; or subscribe. Get the opening clip in full. Intro music: Massive Attack's "Silent Spring." Find us: Twitter/ Facebook/ Flickr.

Edward writes:

Well, I took a large chunk of the money that I had put aside for a new car and put it towards repairs on my current car. With credit tightening up, I realized that I was not going to be able to get the car I wanted and I did not feel like taking out a loan on a car that I really didn't want (but was more affordable).
With the repairs I've just made on my current car, I can probably get another 30K miles out of it. (It gets well over 30 MPG in local driving, plus is roomier than most new cars in its class). Meanwhile, I'll continue to save and build up my credit score until I can get a loan for a car I want.

Living in a city like New York, it's easy to forget about the expense that goes along with a car. Lately we've been seeing headlines about possible hikes in the subway fare. I think to myself, hey, I'll just bike more. Or walk.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 11:43 pm

Financial groups' problem assets hit $610bn

The biggest US financial institutions reported a sharp increase to $610bn in so-called hard-to-value assets during the third quarter, raising concerns about the hidden dangers lurking on balance sheets
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 10 Dec 2008 | 11:32 pm

Verizon Wireless in $17bn loan

The moribund market for corporate finance received a boost when Verizon Wireless, a joint venture between Verizon Communications and Vodafone Group, closed a $17bn syndicated loan, the largest in the US this year
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 10 Dec 2008 | 11:27 pm

Should We Listen to Chicken Little?

Marshall wonders why falling housing prices are necessarily bad:

The housing boom made houses unaffordable and the prices were artificially inflated anyway. Shouldn't we all be happy that the prices are closer to their real values so that people who aren't rich are more likely actually afford houses again?

As it happens, it's not just Marshall who thinks that falling house prices might be a good thing. Analysts, economists, think tanks and even the occasional Treasury Secretary think so, too. So why are many commentators worried about falling prices?

Falling housing prices reflect deflation, which has a range of negative consequences. While it is true that more people can theoretically afford to buy, many shoppers are still proving unwilling to fork over down payments (even though federal housing authorities could push down interest rates, making it easier to borrow the rest of the money to buy the house).

Falling housing prices are bad news for homeowners, particularly the 75 million baby boomers who face the choice of whether to sell their real estate in order to provide cash for anticipated medical and retirement expenses.

For many Americans, their home constitutes the largest share of their net assets (others include investments, pensions and 401(k) plans). However, it is among their most illiquid: while turning the stocks in your brokerage account into cash can be accomplished with a phone call, selling your home is a far more complicated, time-consuming and expensive proposition. If you're counting on being able to profitably sell your house as a last resort, or if you just need to sell it in order to move, it's no fun to be holding a property no one wants -- let alone one that's worth less than it used to be.


rudely surprised to find that this safety net might not be as strong as they had once thought.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 11:26 pm

GMAC bond exchange flop threatens bank bid (Reuters)

Reuters - Auto and mortgage lender GMAC said on Wednesday that only a fraction of its bondholders agreed to swap their debt, raising doubts over the company's efforts to become a bank holding company and stay solvent.
Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 10 Dec 2008 | 11:24 pm

Regulator: mortgage rates could drop to 4 percent (AP)

AP - Government efforts to provide easier credit to consumers and jump-start flagging home sales could push mortgage rates "well below 4 percent," a federal regulator said Wednesday.
Source: Yahoo! News: Business | 10 Dec 2008 | 11:03 pm

Doing Fine In Buffalo

File this under shows I'd like to do: People and businesses getting along just fine, thank you. Nicole in upstate New York writes:

I feel as if I am living in a bubble. My husband works for a successful medical device company and has been desperately trying to hire a Quality Engineer and has had very few applicants. My mother is a nursing manager for an after-hours clinic and has been trying to hire nurses and has had very few applicants. My husband has been told to expect a bonus and a raise next month.
I have a fairly large friend base and know of no one who has been laid off in the last few years in the area where we live.
However I believe where we live is the key to why I have not felt any of the effects of this recent market downturn. I live in Buffalo, NY. Buffalo has been rated as one of the best places to ride out a recession. Buffalo is the second poorest city in the country. Can you make sense of this correlation?

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 10:59 pm

Hayne Leland Says Credit Crisis Will `Change Wall Street'


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 10:08 pm

Harry Clark Favors Biotechnology Stocks Through ETFs


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 10:05 pm

Blumenthal Discusses Cookbook; Jones Comments on Music Career


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 9:53 pm

VIX Index of U.S. Stock Option Prices Retreats 5.4% to 55.73


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 9:45 pm

Treasury urged to scrutinise rescued banks

The US Treasury should scrutinise banks receiving public capital more closely to ensure the money is being used to support the economy and not hoarded, a watchdog said
Source: Financial Times - US homepage | 10 Dec 2008 | 9:33 pm

Ross Perot for Car Czar: 8 Reasons to Sic Mr. Reform on the Big Three

The Great Detroit Bailout of 2008 is nearing status as a done deal. Reuters covers the possible outcomes quite well. Coyote Blog and CFR have good reasons the bailout shouldn’t happen in the first place.

I’m not going to focus on the many reasons giving a drowned man a lifesaver is pointless, because there’s something much more interesting afoot: The Car Czar (from Reuters):

In addition to providing loans, the proposal would force automakers to answer to a presidentially appointed trustee — or “car czar” — and make the government their biggest shareholder. The overseer will have powers to shape a restructuring of the companies, withholding further loans if progress toward a turnaround stalled.

Supposedly, the government is eyeing former Fed chairman and Obama economic advisor Paul Volcker for the job. It’s a bad choice, not because Volcker isn’t qualified, but because the country needs his brainpower focused on its aggregate survival, not the dynamics of keeping the Big Three afloat.

We need someone with the balls to strong-arm Detroit into shape.
We need someone with zero tolerance for corruption. We need someone with a keen eye for errors and cover-ups. We need someone with imperturbable tenacity.

We need Ross Perot. I know he’s 78 years old, but he has the verve of a man at least 20 years his junior. Here are 8 reasons Perot would make an ideal car czar:

1. He is the “Father of Fiscal Charts.”
Have you seen perotcharts.com? The man could measure and graph Dick Cheney’s disappearances, if he felt like it. If given the position of Car Czar, he would immediately set about quantifying the big mess that is the Big Three, adding an element of transparency as well as employing armies of out-of-work analysts.

2. He listens to customers.
Perot’s business advice:

Spend a lot of time talking to customers face to face. You’d be amazed how many companies don’t listen to their customers.

Hear that, GM?

3. He has experience as a czar. In the early 1980s, Perot reformed Texas’ drug laws and education system. For the latter, he devised systems that held principals and teachers accountable for student performance, which he in turn standardized using tests. That kind of systemization might not be ideal for human education, but it sure would work well in manufacturing.

4. He exposes corruption. During the Regan years, Perot did not hesitate to privately investigate possible cover-ups around missing POWs in Southeast Asia. He publicly attacked the Department of Defense in the process. Perot isn’t afraid to play government watchdog, which is precisely what we need during times when the government requires transparency of everyone but itself.

5. He rallies for domestic jobs.
Perot opposes NAFTA and outsourcing, but supports the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), making him an ideal figurehead to rally for homegrown, green auto production.

6. He’s an activist. Consider this quote:

The activist is not the man who says the river is dirty. The activist is the man who cleans up the river.

Perot’s notorious impatience will ensure the Big Three job gets done, fast. His popularity will keep eyes on himself and the industry. Heck, he may even make GMs worth buying again.

7. He’s a salesman. After restructuring the Big Three with the help of his many charts, Perot will know how to sell the revamped American automobile. He started his career as a star salesman for IBM; since then, he has politically sold himself as a popular Reform Party candidate, despite the challenges of doing so in a strongly bipartisan system.

8. He sat on GM’s board 24 years ago.
At that time, he complained about the cars’ low quality. GM eventually bought up his shares, but Perot’s convictions remain. He has a bone to pick with the way GM operates. Perhaps it’s time to unleash him on the Big Three once again. (Hank Paulson makes any mention of “conflict of interest” here moot.)

Who better to be Detroit’s Car Czar than a ruthless, effective control freak like Perot? He knows how to run a business, he knows how to whistle-blow, and he has a keen eye for whipping people into shape. If the government is serious about not giving the Big Three more than the $15 billion it has already promised, it’s time to call the Perot hotline.


Source: Business Pundit | 10 Dec 2008 | 9:09 pm

Big investors rush to 0% T-bills

Money market funds and other big investors looking for a safe place to put their money are buying Treasury bills, even though the bills are paying a 0% interest rate. Alisa Roth reports.
Source: Marketplace | 10 Dec 2008 | 9:03 pm

NPR Lays Off 64

We've been talking on Planet Money about whether layoffs are good for the economy. Today, we got a little closer case study. Citing the economic downturn, officials at NPR announced a round of 64 layoffs -- 7 percent of the workforce. The cuts include the upcoming cancellations of News and Notes and Day to Day, two shows produced out of NPR's Culver City, Calif., studios.

Our colleague David Folkenflik has this report:

"This is a hard day for NPR," said Ellen Weiss, NPR's senior vice president for news. Despite the bad news on the revenue front, the on-air and online audience for NPR is up significantly, she said. "At many levels, NPR's best resources are its people. There isn't a single individual person who isn't going to feel pain today," Weiss said.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 8:50 pm

Author Roger Crowley Discusses Failed Ottoman Siege of Malta


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 8:49 pm

Fed considers issuing debt of its own

Even though the Federal Reserve can print pretty much all the cash it needs, it's now considering borrowing money by selling bonds. Steve Henn reports.
Source: Marketplace | 10 Dec 2008 | 8:44 pm

GOP senators want to stall auto bill

Several Republican senators say they'll try to block an auto bailout bill proposed by congressional Democrats and the White House. Why? Nancy Marshall Genzer reports.
Source: Marketplace | 10 Dec 2008 | 8:41 pm

Panel has lots of questions for Treasury

The Congressional Oversight Panel for Economic Stabilization is set to question the Treasury Department's strategy for the $700 billion bailout. Elizabeth Warren, the panel's chair, discusses her views with Kai Ryssdal.
Source: Marketplace | 10 Dec 2008 | 8:29 pm

Sean Egan Says Alternatives for U.S. Automakers `Narrowing'


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 8:01 pm

Barclays’s Pond Says TIPS ‘Very Cheap’ on Limited Deflation


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 7:59 pm

Best way to donate? Do your research

If you're facing harder times but still want to give back, you may think the best way is through volunteering. But Holden Karnofsky, co-founder of a charity evaluation website, says your time would be better spent finding a nonprofit worthy of your money.
Source: Marketplace | 10 Dec 2008 | 7:57 pm

Harvard's Retsinas Calls Job Losses `Worst Thing' for Housing


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 7:52 pm

Pioneer's Carey Says GM, Chrysler in `Desperate Situation'


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 7:41 pm

Ostwald Likes Some AAA Rated Mortgage-Backed Securities


Source: Bloomberg - All Podcasts | 10 Dec 2008 | 7:37 pm

T.A.R.P.: Tearing Apart the Rescue Plan

A lot of people in this country can't wait for January 20, 2009. But perhaps no one is more ready for it today than Neel Kashkari.

Kashkari, who, as the interim assistant secretary of the Treasury for Financial Stability oversees the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, endured hours of ire today from the House Financial Services Committee. The hearing was held in response to negative reports from the T.A.R.P.'s congressional oversight panel and the Government Accountability Office.

Both watchdog groups criticized the Treasury's execution of the bailout, which was originally intended to buy toxic assets from ailing financial firms but instead has been spent on buying equity stakes in the banks. The hope when the massive bailout was passed in October was that it would help kickstart lending and help stem foreclosures. Instead, foreclosures continue to rise and the banks have not used the money to loan to consumers and businesses. The reports criticized the program's management for its incompetence in even tracking the lending progress.

Member from both sides of the aisle could not contain their fury at some points during the questioning, with at least one congressman calling for Kashkari's resignation.

"People are asking me, 'Is Goldman Sachs running this country?'" said Representative Melvin Watt. "What are we doing giving $700 billion and there is this monopoly on who is controlling it. Nobody is accounting to anybody for it. And the perception, whether the reality is correct or not, the perception is that there is something sinister going on here." Both Kashkari and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are former Goldman Sachs executives.

While the criticism is certainly reasonable, it's worth noting that many of these lawmakers are hoping to distance themselves from their responsibility over the bailout, which many of them voted for. While they may not be pleased with the about-face the Treasury took in its execution, Congress approved a bill with the language that allowed them to do it.

So far, the Treasury has spent nearly all of the $350 billion that Congress initially released. It needs congressional approval for the second $350 billion, which is not looking likely under current circumstances.

Of course, after January 20, this will become Tim Geithner's problem. And Kashkari will likely be set free.


Related Links
When Stabilization Isn't Stimulus
Finally, Drama! A Geithner vs. Bair Clash?
The Blurry Bailout


Source: Portfolio.com: Top 5 | 10 Dec 2008 | 7:30 pm

Faith-based groups may lose funding

President-elect Obama plans to expand the federal faith-based initiative established by President Bush, but with a big change -- no more hiring on the basis of faith. John Dimsdale reports on how faith-based organizations are reacting.
Source: Marketplace | 10 Dec 2008 | 7:24 pm

Meet The EDAR

Homeless people Los Angeles stand to get an upgrade from the cardboard boxes. The LA Times reports on Christopher Raynor's new personal pod:

Until a few weeks ago, he dozed on a thin mattress in the open air. Now he beds down in a snug mobile shelter called an EDAR (short for Everyone Deserves a Roof), a covered contraption that looks like the offspring of a shopping cart and a pop-up camper.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 7:18 pm

Recycling industry down in the dumps

Demand for recycled goods is down, causing a billion dollar industry to lose much of its steam. But another byproduct of the recycling industry's downturn is the creation of new opportunities. Sam Eaton reports.
Source: Marketplace | 10 Dec 2008 | 6:57 pm

Chuck E. Cheese, Where Parents Get Into Fist Fights

The Wall Street Journal covers the potentially violent mix of strong parenting instincts and alcohol:

Chuck E. Cheese’s bills itself as a place “where a kid can be a kid.” But to law-enforcement officials across the country, it has a more particular distinction: the scene of a surprising amount of disorderly conduct and battery among grown-ups.

“The biggest problem is you have a bunch of adults acting like juveniles,” says Town of Brookfield Police Capt. Timothy Imler. “There’s a biker bar down the street, and we rarely get calls there.”

Fights among guests are an issue for all restaurants, but security experts say they pose a particular problem for Chuck E. Cheese’s, since it is designed to be a haven for children. Law-enforcement officials say alcohol, loud noise, thick crowds and the high emotions of children’s birthday parties make the restaurants more prone to disputes than other family entertainment venues.

The environment also brings out what security experts call the “mama-bear instinct.” A Chuck E. Cheese’s can take on some of the dynamics of the animal kingdom, where beasts rush to protect their young when they sense a threat.

The article lists quite a few examples of altercations, ranging from vulgar verbal exchanges to group melees of 40+ people. Yet:

Why the heck does Chuck E. Cheese serve alcohol in the first place?

It’s a recipe for disaster. Tired parents + kids coked up on sugar and bouncy balls + alcohol = potential throat-grabbing. Stop serving the alcohol, Chuck’s, and the cops will be off your case.


Source: Business Pundit | 10 Dec 2008 | 6:21 pm

Frum: Obama rich with ideas, not funds

Commentator David Frum says President-elect Obama's stimulus programs will cost America a pretty penny, money we can't afford to spend or borrow.
Source: Marketplace | 10 Dec 2008 | 6:18 pm

FTSE dips on Darling comments (AFP)

The London Stock Exchange logo. The FTSE 100 index of shares dipped marginally on Wednesday after Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the economic situation was AFP - The FTSE 100 index of shares dipped marginally on Wednesday after Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the economic situation was "difficult".



Source: Yahoo! News: Stock Markets News | 10 Dec 2008 | 5:56 pm

What's A 'Bad Bank'?

I've updated the Planet Money glossary with three of the terms making the rounds in the past few weeks. What is a "bad bank," and why would Citigroup want to sell its assets to it? What is the difference between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 bankruptcy?

It's all in the glossary. Check it. Pitch in.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 5:51 pm

Like Stones In The Sea

Got this from a Chinese Facebook pal:

These days are really frustrating for our graduating students in China; though we're busy delivering our CVs, the response is sort of like "a stone dropped in the sea". Literally fewer job are provided than the past few years, and particularly the application for Big 4 auditors, which is usually considered as a pretty choice for new grads, is becoming even harder.
I'm always hearing about the rumors of massive laying off these days. I still don't have any kind of offer now as well as many friends of mine, in which occasion I have to consider the possibility of further education. My dream is UC and NYU.
As for the interest rate of treasury bill become zero now - from my point of view, I can't agree more with the person who concluded the recession is a problem of TRUST. Actually the process of recession happening in the US is gradually affecting us. I fear that tomorrow's China would become today's US.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 5:10 pm

Where Have All The Mall Rats Gone?

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Seen in Tennessee.

Cassi Yost
 

Cassi Yost sends this picture from her local mall in Cleveland, Tenn. She writes:

Our local mall on a Saturday about 6pm ... food kiosks have closed and spaces are for lease. Barely anyone shopping, and virtually no one eating at the single food vendor. This could spell the end of our only shopping mall here in Cleveland, TN -- we may be forced to head to Chattanooga or Knoxville in days to come.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 4:58 pm

Kittens And Lollipops

Some days, you just need a little cheery news, you know? And now for the headlines, alas:

From the Times of London: Deflation risk hits China as exports tumble.

From the New York Times: Dire forecast for global economy and trade.

From the Miami Herald: U.S. companies say hiring on hold for winter 2009.

From the Wall Street Journal: Washington maps pact for Big Three bailout.

From the LA Times:Video games not recession-proof.

From Yahoo/AP: Workers win big round in Chicago sit-in.

From the Chicago Tribune: Union says no deal yet in factory sit-in.

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Source: NPR Blogs: Planet Money | 10 Dec 2008 | 4:01 pm

You’re Not a Socialist Until You Regulate Vegetable Stands

Ananova reports that an English fellow who sold extra vegetables from his garden had a rather unpleasant incursion with EU authorities:

A man who sells leftover vegetables from his garden to passers-by has been ordered to comply with EU rules on weights and measures. The Northumberland landowner was amazed to receive a warning from trading standards officials after they spotted an honesty box next to his stall, reports the Daily Telegraph.

They ordered James Cookson, who says he takes between £5 and £10 a week selling vegetables that would otherwise have gone to waste, to meet European Union requirements. Officials from Northumberland County Council told him the parsnips, spinach and leeks grown in his walled garden should be sold by metric weight, following EU rules, and sent him four pages of guidance.

Mr Cookson, who owns Meldon Park Estate, near Morpeth, said: “We sold five parsnips from the stall last week and there was £1 in the honesty box.

A county council spokeswoman said: “The advice that was given in the letter was to help explain how to sell fruit and vegetables in the correct manner to meet national guidelines.

“Even small stalls have the same responsibilities as large retailers, but we are not pursuing the stall owner for any wrongdoing; we are offering advice and guidance on how to meet the produce-selling requirements.”

This ditty gives new meaning to squeezing water from turnips. It also reminds me that we in the US aren’t socialist at all, compared to Northumberland…


Source: Business Pundit | 10 Dec 2008 | 3:17 pm

G.M.A.C. Lacks

As General Motors and Chrysler see their bid for federal assistance gaining traction in Washington, a problem is building on another front.

G.M.A.C., the auto and consumer lender in which G.M. has a 49 percent stake, has warned that it may not attract enough capital to qualify as a bank. Bank status would have made it eligible for funds under the $700 billion TARP program. Without that help, G.M.A.C., which could have received an estimated $6 billion, may not survive.

The financial company, controlled by Cerberus Capital Management, the private equity firm that owns Chrysler, says it did not get enough participation in an offer to exchange some $38 billion in debt.

Only $6.3 billion in G.M.A.C. debt has been tendered and $2 billion in notes for its mortgage unit, ResCap, have been tendered. G.M.A.C. is extending its offer to Friday, but is not confident it can obtain the minimum capital of $30 billion needed to be a bank.

"The Federal Reserve has informed G.M.A.C. that if G.M.A.C. is unable to meet these capital requirements, it will not approve G.M.A.C.'s application to become a bank holding company," the company said in a statement.

"If G.M.A.C. is unable to successfully convert to a bank holding company and complete the G.M.A.C. and ResCap offers by December 31, 2008, it would have a near-term material adverse effect on G.M.A.C.'s business, results of operations, and financial position."

Standard & Poor's warned last month that G.M.A.C., which lost $2.52 billion in its last quarter, could file for bankruptcy if it fails to get TARP funds.

A collapse of G.M.A.C. would undermine efforts to revive the auto industry, making auto financing more difficult and further squeezing dealers.

Related Links
G.M.A.C. Whacked
Detroit Needs a Miracle
Ugh, What a Feeling, Toyota


Source: Portfolio.com: Top 5 | 10 Dec 2008 | 2:30 pm

The Hope Economy

As the holiday shopping season stumbles toward its frantic conclusion, countless opinion polls and surveys will remind us that Americans believe the economy is in the doghouse. And short of a miracle not seen since, well, ever, there's little evidence that times will get better over the next few months.

Indeed, last week's downright scary employment report, which showed that more than a half-million jobs vanished from offices and factories around the country in November, will add only more doom to everyone's gloom.

Amid the bad news, however, the election of Barack Obama appears to have given Americans a lift. According to the CNBC/Portfolio.com Wealth in America Survey, 55 percent of respondents expect the economy to improve under the new president. Still, a cynic, could point out that 55 percent matches up pretty nicely with Obama's  share of the popular vote.

How seriously can we take any of these surveys, especially with a severe financial crisis and economic downturn the likes of which most of us have never lived through? The predictions of professional forecasters largely failed us in the run-up to the current recession. Can consumers do any better?

The short answer is no. While for many years, economists believed that consumer surveys helped improve forecasts of consumer spending, more recent research has shown otherwise.        

Still, surveys of consumers can tell us something about their state of mind. For example, other surveys have shown similar bounces higher after the November elections, a situation which is actually an anomaly. A study by European economists last year found that in elections in the United States and Europe over the last two decades, consumer confidence typically rose before an election and dipped thereafter, regardless of whether the incumbent party won or lost. Political contests appear to instill some hope for a brighter future, which are then quickly dashed when "politics as usual" resumes.

Confidence surveys in the U.S. showed a similar upward trend this year until September, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent panic throughout the financial system. The European study's results then suggest that the optimism surrounding Obama could be a red herring if no significant action is taken on the reeling economy soon after he becomes president, or if the action is perceived to be unhelpful.

To Obama's credit, the possibility of little legislative movement post-January seems remote: Democrats in control of Congress and the president-elect has continuously pledged to act quickly on an economic stimulus plan once he enters office.

And the selection of Berkeley's Christina Romer also suggests that speed is on Obama's mind. Romer's past research into the Depression, the historic economic calamity that our own is most often compared to, offers an example of when consumer confidence does matter.

In a 1990 paper titled "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," Romer examined how the stock market collapse of 1929 spilled over into the real economy. Contrary to popular belief at the time—and probably still now—Romer argued that the stock-market crash and the Depression were two distinct events. One didn't automatically lead to the other. The link connecting the two was the role of low sentiment and how it reduced business activity.

"The stock-market crash temporarily increased uncertainty about the course of future income," wrote Romer. "The result of this temporary uncertainty was that consumers, and to a lesser degree investors, cut spending on durable goods drastically as they waited for the uncertainty to be resolved."

Romer wrote the paper shortly after the 1987 stock-market crash, which, she noted, only had a small impact on the rest of the economy: After a brief downturn, spending recovered and grew at a normal rate.  

But this time around, the situation is sure to be worse. Consumer purchases of big-ticket items like cars and appliances have fallen sharply for two consecutive months through October. Total consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, is on a five-month decline, the longest such stretch since the government began tracking it in 1959.

If future income expectations are the linchpin for a return to growth, as Romer's research implies, then the picture looks even grimmer. For even while there is optimism over Obama, a little-followed indicator released monthly by the Conference Board shows that only one out of 10 Americans expect their incomes to increase over the next six months, down from one out of five at the end of 2007 and the lowest level since 1980.

If there is a bit of good news in all of this, it's that while consumer confidence indicators can usually be ignored, that's not the case during times of great distress. Which means that the opinion-polling industry, unlike most others, should breathe a little easier now.

Full coverage of the CNB/Portfolio.com Wealth in America SurveyRelated Links
Worst of Times
When Will It End?
The Fed on Deck


Source: Portfolio.com: Top 5 | 10 Dec 2008 | 1:30 pm